Bitcoin$BTC Analyst Flags Key Shift in Long-Term Holder Behavior: Is a Major Move Coming?
Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler has revealed a notable shift in Bitcoin’s long-term investor (LTH) behavior, suggesting a possible turning point in the market.
According to Adler, LTH supply began to decline significantly after Bitcoin crossed the $118,000 mark. Approximately 52,000 BTC have been distributed since then—a strong signal that long-term holders may be moving from accumulation to distribution mode.
This behavioral shift, Adler notes, mirrors a similar trend seen in late 2024, when Bitcoin surged from $65,000 to $100,000. He believes that as BTC $BTC price climbs higher, distribution will continue to accelerate, just as it did in past macro cycles.
Another critical data point is Bitcoin’s quarterly volatility, which has now fallen to 70%. This is close to the local low of 62%, last observed when BTC was trading at $26,000 in September 2023. Adler interprets this drop in volatility as a sign of institutional or large capital inflows, making Bitcoin a relatively more stable—or “slower”—asset.
For context, the highest volatility this cycle was 143%, while in earlier bull markets, it reached peaks of up to 236%.
With long-term holders shifting stance and volatility narrowing, Adler hints that Bitcoin may be entering another critical phase—potentially laying the groundwork for a new surge.