Based on recent market dynamics and comprehensive analysis, the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in the upcoming week (July 31 to August 6, 2025) may exhibit the following characteristics:
📊 1. Key Price Levels and Technical Patterns
Core Range: Currently, BTC is oscillating in the $115,000-$120,000 range, with intense long and short battles.
Support Levels:
Strong Support: $112,000-$114,000 (Chip vacuum zone; on-chain data indicates this area must be filled during pullbacks).
Second Strong Support: $105,000 (Key defense line when macro factors trigger bearishness).
Resistance Levels:
Key Resistance: $121,000-$123,200 (Historical high point, concentrated area of short liquidation).
Breakout Target: $130,000 (requires a volume breakout above $123,200).
⚖️ 2. Long and Short Driving Factors Analysis
✅ Bullish Signal
Technical Structure: Weekly close above $119,500 forms a bullish support structure; if it breaks above $121,000, it may accelerate upward.
Favorable Macro Factors: US-China tariffs postponed for 90 days, alleviating trade friction risks and boosting sentiment for risk assets.
Liquidity Buffer: Although ETF inflows have slowed, the market depth is sufficient to absorb short-term selling pressure (Kaiko report).
⚠️ Bearish Risk
Four Major Sources of Selling Pressure:
"Sleeping Whales" Wake Up: Long-dormant wallets (such as those associated with Galaxy Digital) recently transferred about $4.7 billion in BTC to exchanges, indicating a potential intention to sell.
Long-Term Holders (LTH) Taking Profits: At the $120,000 resistance level, LTHs begin to realize profits, with an increase in net selling on-chain.
Accelerated outflow from miners: In July, the outflow of BTC from miners' wallets increased, which may exacerbate supply pressure.
Weakened Demand in the US: Coinbase Premium turned negative, indicating increased selling pressure from US institutions.
Liquidity Warning:
Weekly net inflow of BTC spot ETF plummeted by 80% (from $2.5 billion to $496 million), indicating a decline in institutional interest.
Exchange stablecoin inventory contraction, insufficient market buying funds.
📉 3. Future Week Scenario Prediction
Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Price Probability Optimistic Breakout Stabilizing at $121,000 and favorable macro data $123,000-$130,000 30% Consolidation in the range of $112,000-$120,000, maintaining fluctuations around $117,000 50% Deep Correction Breaking below $112,000 or hawkish signals from the Fed $105,000-$100,000 20%
📌 Key Observation Points:
August 1 US Non-Farm Data: If employment exceeds expectations, it may strengthen interest rate hike expectations, which would be bearish for BTC.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 31): A hawkish statement may trigger a short-term crash.
💡 4. Operational Suggestions
Short-Term Traders:
After breaking above $121,000, lightly chase the long position with a target of $123,000 and a stop loss at $118,000.
If it drops to the $112,000-$114,000 range, build positions in batches with a stop loss at $110,000.
Long-Term Investors: #上市公司加密储备战略
Buy on dips near $105,000; the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged (halving cycle + institutional adoption).
Risk Control:
Avoid high leverage; historical seasonal weakness in August (Coinglass data).
Keep a close eye on on-chain whale movements (such as LookonChain alerts) and ETF fund flows.
💎 Summary
The core contradiction for BTC in the upcoming week is "Technical Breakout Potential vs. Accumulation of Multiple Selling Pressure":
Upside Opportunity: A breakout above $121,000 needs volume support; otherwise, it may easily result in a false breakout; if macro data is moderate, there is hope for testing previous highs.
Downside Risk: Four major sources of selling pressure (whales, LTHs, miners, US capital) combined with the seasonal weakness in August, making the probability of a deep correction non-negligible.
📢 Suggestion: Respond with a consolidation mindset, focusing on the support at $112,000 and the breakout of resistance at $121,000; before data release, keep positions not exceeding 50%.
