Based on the latest market dynamics and comprehensive analysis as of July 31, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is likely to show the following characteristics in the upcoming week (July 31 - August 6):
📊 1. Key price points and technical patterns
Core range: Current ETH price is fluctuating in the $3,700-$3,800 range, with short-term bullish and bearish forces balanced.
Support level:
Strong support: $3,500 (institution cost area, multiple pullbacks have not broken it).
Short-term defensive level: $3,700-$3,725 (Bollinger Band middle track and stop-loss reference).
Resistance level:
Key resistance: $3,900-$3,950 (recent high point pressure area).
Breakout target: $4,100 (if it breaks out with volume, a new upward channel will open).
⚙️ 2. Technical indicator signals
Bullish signal:
MACD golden cross: Red energy bars are expanding, indicating that mid-term upward momentum is still present.
Bollinger Bands narrowing: Lower volatility indicates an imminent directional choice, with a higher probability of an upward breakout.
Risk warning:
RSI neutral to bullish: Current RSI around 50-60, not overbought but caution against false breakouts is needed.
Insufficient volume: Recent price increases have been on low volume; if it breaks through key resistance, it needs to be confirmed with increased volume.
📈 3. Core driving factors
Positive events:
Tenth Anniversary Celebration (July 31): Market sentiment is optimistic, and participation from institutions and influencers may strengthen consensus.
Institutions continue to increase holdings: Institutions like BitMine and SharpLink have cumulatively bought over 580,000 ETH recently, reducing circulation by locking them up.
Stablecoin legislation coming into effect: ETH as the core settlement layer for stablecoins, increasing long-term demand.
Potential risks:
Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations: A stronger dollar suppresses the cryptocurrency market; attention is needed on August's policy trends.
BTC correlation: If Bitcoin fails to break through the $120,000 resistance, it may drag ETH down.
📉 4. Future week trend scenario predictions
Scenario trigger conditions target price probability optimistic breakout stabilizing at $3,900 with increased volume $4,000-$4,100 40% consolidation at $3,700-$3,900 maintaining around $3,800 50% pullback washout breaking below $3,700 or BTC sharply dropping to $3,500-$3,600 10%
💡 5. Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term traders:
Breakout to chase: If it breaks through $3,900 with volume, position accordingly, targeting $4,100, stop-loss at $3,850.
Range trading: High sell low buy in the $3,725-$3,900 range, setting stop-loss below $3,700.
Long-term investors:
Buy on dips: Gradually build positions in the $3,500-$3,600 range, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook to $10,000 (ETF expectations + deflation model).
Risk control focus:
Avoid high leverage; ETH volatility has recently increased.
Pay attention to the U.S. cryptocurrency policy report at the beginning of August (may affect market sentiment).
💎 Summary
The core logic for ETH in the upcoming week is 'Celebration benefits vs. Technical fluctuations':
Upward momentum: The tenth anniversary celebration + institutional lock-up supports the price; breaking $4,100 requires volume support.
Consolidation main tone: 50% probability of continuing consolidation, waiting for BTC direction or new catalysts.
Key observations: On-chain whale movements (continuous outflow of ETH from exchanges is bullish) and whether BTC can break through the $120,000 mark.
The market has risks; decisions must be made independently. It is recommended to consider your own risk preference and adjust the position rhythm flexibly 🔄.