July showed a clear two-phase characteristic for BTC:

July 1-10: Ranged up from $105,960 to $111,398

July 11 breakout: Soared to $116,876 in a single day, setting a new monthly high of $123,214

July 15 pullback: Deeply retreated to $115,776 before quickly rebounding

Late July: Consolidated at high levels in the $117,000-$119,000 range

BTC ranked 10th in the spot popularity list, leading in transaction volume ($1.29 billion USDT)

24-hour transaction volume remains high, indicating active market participation

Capital flow characteristics

Large selling pressure has been absorbed by the market: The large sale of 80,000 BTC ($9.6 billion) last weekend did not cause a sustained impact on prices

Institutional holdings are stable: Mining companies like MARA continue to increase holdings, surpassing 50,000 BTC

📰 Fundamental elements

Policy catalysts

FOMC meeting approaching: The Federal Reserve's policy decisions will affect the trends of risk assets

White House cryptocurrency report: Clarification of policies may become a key factor for price breakthroughs

Institutional dynamics

MARA Holdings Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net profit turning from a loss of $200 million to a profit of $808 million

Institutional-level BTC allocation demand is continuously growing

🎯 Investment strategy suggestions

Short-term outlook (1-2 weeks) 📊

Most likely scenario: Continue to range consolidate in the $116,000-$120,000 range

Upside resistance: $118,966 → $120,409 → $123,214 (previous high)

Downside support: $116,611 → $115,870 → $114,728

Medium-term outlook (1-2 months) 🚀

Breakout direction depends on:

FOMC policy inclination (Dovish bullish/Hawkish bearish)

Content of the White House cryptocurrency policy report

Institutional capital allocation rhythm

Trading strategy 💡

Conservative: Gradually build positions in the $116,500-$117,000 range, target $119,500-$120,500 Aggressive: Chase after breaking $120,500, target $125,000-$130,000

Risk control: Stop loss below $115,500, to guard against deep pullback to $112,000-$114,000

🔮 Core viewpoint

Bitcoin is currently in a critical policy-sensitive period, and the technical aspect shows a high-level consolidation pattern.

It is highly likely to maintain an upward trend in range, but attention should be paid to directional breakthroughs brought by the FOMC meeting and policy clarifications.