Tonight is a dense information node, including key macro events such as 'small non-farm' ADP data, initial US GDP figures, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and Robinhood's financial report will be published collectively. The market may temporarily fall into a 'news disturbance period', with increased volatility leading to rapid fluctuations on a minute-by-minute basis. In this situation, forming a trending market is difficult, and even the space for intra-day swing operations is compressed.

Moreover, with the month-end approaching, market trading activity is becoming cautious. At this time, controlling risk and waiting for the shoe to drop may be a more reasonable choice.

BTC: Accumulation before the breakout, volatility continues but the structure is intact.

Bitcoin has experienced repeated fluctuations at important thresholds of 90,000, 100,000, and 110,000; currently, around 120,000 is a similar rhythm. Overall, the trend still maintains a large trend of upward oscillation, and it is expected that the consolidation period will last for 1 to 3 months, requiring investors to maintain composure.

Operational strategy suggestion:

There is strong selling pressure in the price range of 119000–120000, requiring time and trading volume to digest;

The current phase belongs to the process of 'horizontal consolidation and energy exchange';

Daily support levels to watch are 117000, 116000, 115000;

Pressure reference at 118500, 119500, 120500; break through and then chase high, do not blindly predict for now.

ETH: Bulls are strong but there is selling pressure, the key range determines the subsequent space.

Ethereum recently recorded a bearish cross on the daily chart, with technical indicators showing a need for adjustment, but overall buying support remains clear, with prices being quickly pulled up after each dip. Structurally, it is still in a strong channel, but market selling pressure is gradually increasing.

It is particularly noteworthy that since mid-July, Delta has remained negative, indicating that although there is active buying, the funds have not formed an effective trend push.

Operational strategy suggestion:

Short-term support level is in the 3720–3750 range, where there is still capital defending;

If it can effectively break through 3940 and hold, it will open up upward space to 4200–4500;

If it breaks down below 3720 with volume, it may enter a medium-term adjustment, with support looking at 3300–3100;

If the market further weakens, attention should be paid to the dense trading area below 2400–2800.

The heat of the BTC ecosystem is rising again, driven by the wealth effect of BRC 2.0.

Recently, the Bitcoin ecosystem has welcomed a new source of enthusiasm, stemming from the upcoming upgrade of the BRC 2.0 protocol. This brings a noticeable wealth effect to some assets in the ecosystem, with the NFT project Adderrels being a typical representative:

From 0.0001269 BTC (about 15 dollars) to 0.019 BTC (about 2300 dollars);

A rise of over 100 times within a month, Degen returns once again.

This indicates that the BTC ecosystem may welcome a new round of concentrated attention, which could also trigger short-term speculative demand for some related assets.

The small altcoin climax in August is approaching; which blue chips are still worth speculating?

As mainstream coins stabilize, some speculative funds are looking for rotation targets. It is expected that in the first week of August, the altcoin market will experience a small climax. The following blue-chip projects are worth closely tracking due to their fundamentals or technological innovations:

$UNI: Angstrom decentralized exchange has gone live, adopting Uniswap v4 architecture, which can return MEV profits to LPs; the potential is worth watching;

$AAVE & $ETH: Aave is preparing to launch V4, with a new mechanism that will lower the borrowing costs of quality assets like ETH;

$ENA & $USDtb: Ethena is collaborating with Anchorage to transform USDtb into a compliant stablecoin regulated by the US federal government;

$DOGE: Developers are trying to introduce native ZK proof into the main chain, which, if successful, will be a significant breakthrough in PoW public chains.

Current key focus targets

In the context of market volatility, I am still focusing on the following projects:

$AOL: Position control at 25%, trend is stable, clear signs of major player control, suitable for medium-term holding;

$URANUS: Bottom horizontal trading is evident, the pace is slow, do not chase highs, follow fluctuations for price differences;

$MEMECOIN: After a high-level pullback, I added positions at 24M, paying attention to the subsequent second startup opportunities;

$旺柴: Continue to add positions on dips, waiting for rotation to explode;

Also paying attention to whether the believe platform will have a new round of performance opportunities.

List of leading altcoins in various tracks (reference for bottom fishing during declines)

Leaders are often the most resilient and rebound first in the entire track. If you don't know who to buy during a decline, it is recommended to only buy the leaders:

Track category

Trading principle: Do not blindly trust the logic of supplementary rises; leading coins often can lead independent trends and continue to extract value. After the market enters a consolidation phase, observe which types of altcoins are the most resilient, as they will be your priority for increasing positions.