In this market wave, if we only look at the price curve, it indeed resembles a 'bull market', but the actual participation feels like being repeatedly harvested. Major coins take turns performing volatile maneuvers, while most people have no chance to get on board, and very few can hold steady. Especially in the altcoin sector, it has become a 'funding hell'.

Main coins: superficially strong, but actually experiencing intense turnover.

Bitcoin (BTC):

Last night, BTC briefly tested $119,300, but failed to maintain that level, quickly being suppressed by bears to around $117,200 support, before barely stabilizing. The closing daily shape shows a small negative pin bar, which is a typical 'pre-pressure at a key point' trend - the structure hasn't broken, but the bulls' confidence has been shaken.

  • Key resistance area: 118000-119000

  • Lower support area: 115500-116500

  • If it fails to hold 116, the next step may test the 113000-114000 area.

Ethereum (ETH):

ETH is also showing signs of fatigue; unable to break 3880, it pulled back to 3720 before seeing a slight rebound. The daily chart shows a small negative pin bar, indicating insufficient upward momentum and increased volatility.

  • Resistance range: 3820-3880

  • Support range: 3600-3660

  • If it breaks, pay attention to the test opportunity at 3500.

    Summary

: The main coin is still operating within a volatile range, but there are signs of turnover structurally; the market is looking for the 'next successor'.

Altcoins: Extremely weak sentiment, clear capital risk aversion.

The performance of the altcoin market can be described as 'cold to the bone'. Whether it's AI concepts, RWA, staking sectors, or even the previously hot ONDO and MERL, they all follow the same script - spike up to lure buyers, then quickly drop, showing no sustainability.

  • Most altcoins are still operating below the downward trend line;

  • Trading volume has not increased, indicating low participation from major players;

  • Hotspots are rotating very quickly, with capital inclined towards short-term arbitrage, unwilling to take deep positions.

Operational suggestion: At this stage, altcoins resemble speculative tools rather than value stores, and it is unwise to hold on stubbornly. Strategically, it is better to avoid them than to engage in prolonged battles.

On-chain signal: The mid-bull market has not yet concluded.

Although there is obvious pressure on the market, on-chain data shows that the lifeline of this market wave has not yet run dry. Since the ETF launch, the active supply of Bitcoin has increased by nearly 1 million, indicating that a large number of long-term holders are beginning to re-enter the market.

This state of 'whale awakening' is a precursor to mid-bull market launches seen in the past. Similar signs have appeared historically before surges to 70,000 and 100,000.

Potential catalyst for ETH: Countdown to staking release

In the next 11 days, 668,000 ETH will be queued for staking redemption, involving an amount exceeding $2.5 billion. Once this batch of ETH completes its turnover, it is likely to achieve key chip redistribution around $4000, opening up space for subsequent rises.

Conclusion: ETH is not weak, it is just completing a phase of market consolidation. Once funds are confirmed, it may quickly stage a 'new high scenario'.

The BNB chain has quietly changed its face, vigorously accumulating explosive potential.

On the surface, BNB's performance seems quiet, but in reality, there has been a dramatic qualitative change on-chain: BNB Chain has completed a $1.25 billion PIPE financing, core to the US stock listing project - VAPE.

VAPE has transformed from a company initially focused on e-cigarettes, CEA Industries, to fully entering the BNB native ecosystem, with its stock price surging 550% on the day of transformation.

At the same time, the technical aspects of the BNB chain are also accelerating: block generation time has been reduced from 1.5 seconds to 0.75 seconds, and the on-chain transaction volume has surged by 142.8% in the past three months, far exceeding ETH's 24.3% in the same period.



Summary: BNB is quietly preparing for a significant market movement with 'underlying technology + capital linkage', steadily building momentum.

Analysis of altcoin market: Only the flexible will survive

DOGE:

Currently, it has fallen below the key rising channel, the '123 reversal pattern' is complete, and it is in the eighth wave of the wave structure. The bearish trend is evident.

Support level: 0.215 / 0.198 Resistance level: 0.230 / 0.2455

CFX:

After breaking through the long-term consolidation range, if it can hold the high support, the market can still look bullish. Each reasonable pullback presents a potential buying opportunity.

In conclusion: Stop waiting for 'altcoin season'; now it is 'altcoin sacrifice'.

Stop fantasizing about a major bull market for altcoins; it now resembles a 'cruel elimination tournament for projects'. Those who are not evergreen in the crypto world must rely on flexible operations to survive. The real main storyline remains the structural adjustments of BTC and ETH; altcoins are only suitable for quick in-and-out, not worth your emotional investment.

This bull market is far from over, but the strategy of capital has changed. Only those remaining in the market can welcome the next true explosive opportunity.