1. No rate cut tonight? The deadly trap behind the 'open card' in the crypto circle!

The results of the Fed's July meeting are about to be revealed, but the market is already 'in the know' - a 96.9% probability of maintaining the current rates, keeping them in the 4.25%-4.5% range

On the surface, it seems like 'bad news is out', but the real storm lies in the details:

Two Fed governors, Waller and Bowman, may cast a rare 'double dissenting vote' in 30 years, demanding an immediate rate cut! These two are close to Trump, and Waller is a popular candidate for the next chair; their resistance signifies that the 'hawk-dove battle' within the Fed has intensified

If Powell's speech tonight releases a 'dovish smoke bomb', even if it’s just removing the phrase 'inflation risk', the market will bet on a rate cut in September, and BTC will surge violently!

2. The 'liquidity script' in the crypto circle has been written: September rate cut = BTC hitting $120,000?

The current market consensus is: 62.6% probability of a rate cut in September, with two more cuts expected in 2026!

Historical patterns show: After the start of a rate cut cycle, BTC's average increase exceeds 23% (referencing performance after the September 2024 rate cut)

A weakening dollar + excessive liquidity will lead to a crazy influx of institutional funds into the crypto market to hedge against inflation, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins may welcome an 'epic rebound'

Beware of short-term volatility! If Powell emphasizes inflation risk tonight, BTC may flash crash to $90,000, but this is a 'golden pit', be ready to bottom fish with leverage!

3. Trump 'pressuring' Powell: The biggest black swan for the crypto circle?

The independence of the Federal Reserve is being openly threatened by Trump! He has recently pressured the Fed to cut rates and even hinted at 'firing Powell'

If political interference becomes a reality: the collapse of dollar credibility will trigger the narrative of BTC as 'digital gold', and the $3,500/ounce gold price target (predicted by UBS) may indicate BTC will soar in tandem

Stablecoin regulatory storm: Circle (the issuer of USDC) has surged 34% due to backing from US treasury bonds

If Fed policies become chaotic, USDT and USDC may become 'landmines', and funds will accelerate their escape to BTC spot ETFs!

4. Operating guide: How to 'lick blood off the knife edge' tonight?

Short-term: In the two hours before and after the rate decision is announced, the contract market will inevitably see a 'double kill' of long and short positions, with liquidations possibly exceeding $850 million

Retail investors should be cautious with high leverage!

Midline: Before the rate cut in September, accumulate BTC and ETH on dips, focusing on 'dovish Fed comments + US unemployment rate data'

Dark Horse: After the negative impact of stablecoin regulation fades, compliant assets like Coinbase stock (COIN) and BTC spot ETFs (like BlackRock's IBIT) will become new favorites for institutions

In Q4 2025, Fed rate cuts + political turmoil in the US election = BTC reaching a historical high! If you don't position now, are you going to wait for the $120,000 FOMO surge?

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