Bitcoin 2025: Key Scenarios Based on Market Cycles
1. Current Market Phase (2024-2025)
• The market is in a "Optimism/Anxiety" phase, which is a typical mid-cycle phase post-halving.
• The profitability indicator (NUPL) remains neutral, not showing a sharp increase like in 2021.
2. Possible Scenario: Bullish Case
• Transitioning to the "Confidence/Denial" zone (similar to 2017 and 2021).
• Growth towards a new all-time high driven by:
- Institutional demand (ETFs, corporate treasury bonds).
- Peak halving impact in 2024.
Downside Risks.
• Prolonged "Anxiety" with a pullback to:
- $70,000-80,000 (if macroeconomic conditions worsen).
- "Hope/Fear" phase.
3. Historical Similarities.
• 2017: Similar mid-cycle phase. → Followed by a 300% increase
• 2021: Sudden shift to "Euphoria" → Collapse
Key Factors for 2025:
- Federal Reserve Policy (Interest Rates)
- Bitcoin ETF Flows
- Political Risks (U.S. Elections)
What is your forecast for 2025: Rise to 1 Bitcoin = $150,000 or a correction
