$BTC #ETH The Impact Mechanism of the Federal Reserve's Three Scenarios on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Scenario One: Direct Rate Cut (Probability <5%)

- Market Reaction: If the rate cut exceeds expectations, it will trigger a liquidity frenzy. Bitcoin (BTC) may quickly break through the $125,000 resistance level, Ethereum (ETH) may challenge the critical psychological level of $4,000, while Dogecoin (DOGE) may see explosive recovery due to technical support from historical accumulation ranges ($0.15-$0.22).

- Risk Points: A surge in short-term leveraged long positions may lead to profit-taking pressure, similar to the liquidation event on July 26 when Bitcoin fell 5.7% in a single day (with $144 million in leveraged positions liquidated).

2. Scenario Two: Clear Hint of Rate Cut in September (Probability 70%)

- Market Reaction: In line with current mainstream expectations (futures market pricing the probability of a September rate cut at 70%). BTC/ETH may see a moderate increase of 3%-5%, but caution is needed for a “buy the expectation, sell the fact” pullback.

- Structural Opportunity: Ethereum may outperform the market due to continued institutional accumulation (BlackRock ETF holding 2.46 million ETH) and staking yield expectations; if DOGE stabilizes above $0.25, the technical target looks at $0.46.

3. Scenario Three: Ambiguous Stance (Probability 25%)

- Market Reaction: The most dangerous scenario! If Powell avoids a rate cut path, combined with geopolitical risks (Middle East tensions, fluctuating trade policies), BTC may break below the $116,000 support level, testing the $111,000-$112,000 demand zone.

- Chain Reaction: The strong selling pressure zone for ETH at $4,000 (519,000 staked ETH waiting to be unlocked + large whales like Sun Yuchen selling) will trigger a collective pullback in altcoins.