From the essence of trading, 'missing out' is often a man-made emotional trap. Bitcoin's $BTC journey is like a giant ship navigating through storms—from $1 to the historical high of $123,550 reached on July 14, 2025, most people are merely passersby. The market is like the ocean, with calm segments as well as moments of turbulent waves; no one can fully control the direction, what we can do is to grasp our own journey.
When the sky is clear, trading seems simple; when clouds gather, the true strategy shines. Historically, although Bitcoin is in a 'perpetual bull market', it has also experienced multiple 70%-80% deep corrections. Opportunities always exist, and anxiety is unnecessary—investing is not about betting on a specific target, but about honing one's understanding of cycles and managing risks.
This week's core market variable: Super Macro Week has arrived
This week can be described as a 'data and event intensive week', multiple factors will determine the short-term direction:
US Macroeconomic Data: Key indicators such as PCE Price Index, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls will be released successively, revealing the true temperature of the economy;
Federal Reserve Policy: The interest rate meeting and Powell's speech at 2 AM Thursday (Beijing time) will directly affect the market's pricing of interest rate cut expectations;
White House Dynamics: The digital asset report may release policy signals, affecting the nerves of the crypto market;
Corporate Earnings Reports: The performance of US tech stocks will indirectly influence the sentiment of the crypto sector;
Ethereum Ecosystem: Recent actions by the foundation (Note: There were no large transfer records for the Ethereum Foundation on July 27; verification needed) and the 10th anniversary conference (July 30) may bring short-term volatility.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-level consolidation (around $117,500) waiting for direction—this may determine whether Ethereum and altcoins continue the 'third wave up' or face a 'fourth wave correction'.
Survival rules during the consolidation period: use stillness to control motion, exchange time for space
Recently, the market has shown characteristics of a 'policy expectation bull': Trump's administration's crypto-friendly stance combined with the interest rate cut cycle forms the underlying logic of the main upward wave. At this time, be wary of two types of noise: first, short-term black swan events (such as sudden regulatory news), and second, emotional trading (chasing highs and cutting losses).
Strategic Advice:
Control your hands and stabilize your position: reduce frequent operations during high-level fluctuations to avoid being swayed by emotions;
Expectation Management: Set clear time frames (such as 3-6 months) and profit targets, reject a 'gambling mentality';
Contrarian Thinking: If a deep correction occurs in August, it may actually be a good opportunity for positioning—historical experience shows that true tops are often accompanied by 'FOMO' (fear of missing out), while the current market sentiment has not yet reached this stage (Bitcoin market share and altcoin season index are still within a reasonable range).
Long-term Perspective: Time is the strongest chip
The charm of the crypto market lies in its 'non-linear growth' characteristic—90% of the gains may come from 10% of the time. At this moment, it’s wise to be a 'patient hunter': when most people are anxious due to short-term fluctuations, it's the best time to accumulate quality assets; when the voices of 'if you don't go all in, you'll miss out' fill the market, that's the real signal to exit.
After this week, the market may provide a clearer direction. Stay calm and let time be your strongest ally.
