The S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged on Monday at 6,389.77 points, up just 0.02%, as American investors largely ignored the newly announced trade deal between the Trump administration and the European Union. Instead, they shifted their attention to a busy week filled with key market catalysts.

According to CNBC, the index hit a new all-time high shortly after opening but remained flat afterward, climbing only 0.2% above the baseline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 64.36 points to 44,837.56, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.33% to a new record of 21,178.58.

Source: TradingView

📜 Market Indifference to Trump-EU Trade Deal

President Donald Trump revealed a new U.S.–EU trade agreement on Sunday, reducing tariffs to 15% for countries that sign bilateral deals with the U.S.—aimed at avoiding previous threats of 30% import duties. Trump warned Monday that countries not renegotiating could face tariffs between 15% and 20%, establishing a new global baseline.

Despite the announcement, market reactions were muted. Investors showed little enthusiasm, instead focusing on upcoming macroeconomic data, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, and tech earnings reports.

📊 Key Events This Week: Fed, Tech Earnings, and Jobs Data

This week is set to be one of the most active earnings periods of the quarter, with over 150 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results. Notable tech giants include Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday.

Market participants are paying close attention to AI-related investments and looking for signs that spending on cloud and infrastructure is paying off. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting began Tuesday, with a decision expected Wednesday. Most analysts expect interest rates to remain steady at 4.25%–4.5%.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report is also pivotal, with forecasts of 102,000 new jobs added in July—down from 147,000 in June. This figure is seen as a key indicator of economic health, especially as wage growth and labor participation appear to stabilize.

🌍 European Markets React Negatively as Euro and Stocks Drop

While U.S. markets stayed cautious, European assets responded more negatively. The euro fell over 1% against the dollar—its sharpest one-day decline since May—and declined 0.8% versus the British pound. Despite this, the euro remains up 12% year-over-year, buoyed by strong German defense spending and optimism that Trump’s “America First” policies will prompt Europe to strengthen its own economy.

European leaders expressed discontent. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that the new tariffs would cause “significant damage” to Germany, Europe, and even the U.S.:

“Not only will inflation rise, but transatlantic trade as a whole will suffer,” Merz said. “This outcome is regrettable—but it’s the best possible under the circumstances.”

French Prime Minister François Bayrou called the agreement a “black day for Europe,” claiming the EU had “surrendered.” European markets, which initially opened higher on hopes of a more favorable deal, reversed course:

🔹 Germany’s DAX closed down 1.1%

🔹 France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%

🔹 Stoxx Europe 600 auto sector, heavily exposed to tariffs, dropped 1.8%, erasing early gains

Source: TradingView

📈 Oppenheimer Turns Optimistic on S&P 500

Oppenheimer has reasserted a bullish outlook on the S&P 500, raising its 2025 year-end target to 7,100 points from a previous forecast of 5,950—a potential 11.1% rise from last week’s close.

Chief strategist John Stoltzfus explained that the April downgrade was linked to Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are now on hold. The firm believes markets can withstand the current trade environment and continue to grow.

#stockmarket #S&P500 #FederalReserve #TRUMP #TrumpTraiff

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