Today's Bitcoin price shows slight fluctuations, and US stocks are also volatile, likely due to the dense macro events this week triggering risk-averse sentiment, but the extent is limited. The recent earnings season, PCE, non-farm data, and July interest rate meeting are approaching, and the market generally expects no rate cuts, with a focus on whether Powell will mention September policy.
On this night, a total of 155,707 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $462 million. Long positions liquidated amounted to $3.72 million, while short positions liquidated amounted to $89.6026 million.
Bitcoin (BTC) technical assessment
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical node. The 1-hour chart shows a pullback after high-level fluctuations. Although the 12-hour rebound structure is not fully terminated, the MACD indicator shows that the downward momentum is increasing. If this downward trend cannot be reversed within the next 48 hours, the price may further decline.
The daily chart maintains a high-level oscillation pattern, with trading volume steady. The MA30 moving average (115000) has become an important support level recently. This position may provide short-term buying opportunities. The upper resistance range is concentrated between 120000-150000, while the lower support level needs to pay close attention to the 115000-101510 range.
Ethereum (ETH) trend analysis
After a top divergence signal appeared on the 4-hour chart, the price fell as expected. Although the 2-hour EMA52 provided temporary support, the rebound strength is limited. It is expected to test the more critical 4-hour (3696) and 8-hour (3500) support levels subsequently, which may create stronger rebound opportunities.
The daily chart shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the MACD fast and slow lines are about to form a death cross. If the death cross is confirmed, the market may need a longer adjustment period to digest the selling pressure. The upper range of 4000-4650 constitutes strong resistance, while the 3696-3180 area will become a key battleground for bulls and bears.
There are three major events in the cryptocurrency circle this week (from July 30 to August 1):
Federal Reserve meeting + Powell's speech (July 30): There is a high probability of pausing interest rate hikes, with a focus on whether there will be hints of a rate cut. If they say the rate cut will be delayed (hawkish), it will be unfavorable for the market; if they say the cut will happen soon (dovish), it will be favorable for the market, and prices may fluctuate significantly.
GDP data from the beautiful country (July 31): The economy is stronger than expected, which might provide some short-term benefits, but it may lead to the perception that interest rates will remain high, which is not good in the long run; if the data is poor, it indicates economic troubles, and people may start selling.
Non-farm payroll report (August 1): If employment is too good, people will feel that a rate cut is unlikely, and the dollar will strengthen, which is very unfavorable for the market; if employment data declines, people may think a rate cut is coming, and the market may rebound.
Precautions:
Watch the points when the event is announced, be careful of sudden price drops or surges.
Pay attention to these indicators: US Dollar Index (a rise is unfavorable for the market), US stocks (NASDAQ, S&P), gold (to see if people want to hedge).
Don't chase after buying when prices rise and selling when they fall; be careful of false breakouts!
Let's talk about altcoins again, why don't altcoins rise after a correction?
Some projects are decent, but most still rely on market sentiment. As long as a bit of scattered funds flows into them, they can surge significantly. However, when mainstream coins stop moving, and funds withdraw, these altcoins can easily suffer heavy losses.
Some projects are decent, but most still rely on market sentiment. As long as a bit of scattered funds flows into them, they can surge significantly. However, when mainstream coins stop moving, and funds withdraw, these altcoins can easily suffer heavy losses.
Market fluctuations are normal; the key point now is how we can avoid those junk 'air coins' and pick up low-position chips.
Position allocation:
#SOL, #BNB, #SUI are several public chain coins with significant potential, both able to rise and relatively stable. The key is that when funds start to flow into the third phase of altcoins, these will definitely be the first to be targeted. For those who don’t like buying Bitcoin or Ethereum, these three can be bought a bit more.
Fundamentally solid coin #LINK: As a leading project in decentralized oracles, it is essential for DeFi, NFTs, and projects combining AI and blockchain.
Advantages of the track: The influx of funds is very strong right now. When I mention Ethereum, don’t just focus on it; tokens like #OP, #ARB, and #EIGEN can also be entered now.
Overall, this round of correction is more influenced by macro policy expectations and is a case of 'time mismatch' rather than 'logical reversal'. The Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts has indeed put pressure on the market in the short term, but the general direction still looks towards September, which provides us with an opportunity to accumulate quality coins at lower prices.
In the upcoming trades, it is recommended that everyone maintain a stable mindset, return to fundamentals, and prioritize major public chains (such as SOL, BNB, SUI) and leading projects (such as LINK, OP, ARB). Pay attention to controlling positions, set stop-loss orders, and use this round of fluctuations to gradually accumulate potential chips, preparing for the next round of price increases.
The market won't be absent, just delayed—stay clear-headed and wait for the wind to come.
