📈 Performance and Driving Factors of the US Stock Market
1. Divergence in Index Trends, Tech Stocks Lead
On July 29, 2025, the performance of the three major US stock indices was divergent:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.14%, closing at 44,837.56 points, showing a trend of rising then falling during the day.
Nasdaq Composite Index: Up 0.33%, closing at 21,178.58 points, hitting an intraday record high of 21,202.18 points.
S&P 500 Index: Slightly up 0.02%, closing at 6,389.80 points, also refreshing its intraday high to 6,401.07 points.
2. Tech Giants Strongly Drive the Market
Tesla (TSLA): Soared 3%, continuing its recent rebound trend.
Chip and AI Sector: AMD surged 4.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.9%, and Supermicro Computer increased by over 10%.
Other Tech Giants: Amazon (AMZN) rose 0.6%, Meta (META) rose 0.7%, Apple (AAPL) slightly increased 0.1%, while only Microsoft (MSFT) fell slightly by 0.2%.
3. Core Driver Analysis
US-EU Tariff Agreement Reached: Trump announced a unified reduction of import tariffs on European goods to 15% (originally threatened at a tax rate of 30%) and imposed tariffs of 15% to 20% on non-negotiating countries. This move alleviates trade war risks and boosts global economic growth expectations and risk appetite.
Tech Stocks Earnings Expectations: The market focuses on the earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple this week, particularly their guidance on AI capital expenditures and cloud infrastructure investments.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: The market generally expects that the meeting on July 30 will maintain interest rates, with a focus on Powell's statement regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September.
₿ Two, Divergent Patterns in the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum: Strong Institutional Support
Bitcoin (BTC): Price remains stable in the range of $118,000-$119,000, with a slight daily drop of 0.43%. The weekly increase is still 9.53%, and the market capitalization remains at $2.35 trillion. The key support level of $115,000 has accumulated over 1.38 million BTC, forming strong technical support.
Ethereum (ETH): Although down 1.64% to around $3,800, major institutional accumulation occurred during the week—nine new wallets cumulatively purchased 628,000 ETH (worth $2.38 billion), indicating a bet ahead of the ETF approval.
Strong ETF Fund Inflows:
→ Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow of $157.1 million (IBIT accounted for $147 million)
→ Ethereum ETF net inflow of $65.2 million, with market expectations for SEC approval of the spot ETF this week rising from 25% to 75%.
2. Declines in Competitive Coins and Altcoins
Solana (SOL): Down 4.45% to $184.41, with significant liquidity outflow pressure.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Plummeted 7.09% to $0.227, with a weekly decline extending to 15.99%. The main reason is intensified institutional selling pressure, falling below the critical psychological support level of 0.222, in line with Tesla's stock price decline (Tesla weekly drop of 9%).
Performance of Other Major Coins:
→ XRP fell 3.92% to $3.14
→ Cardano (ADA) dropped 5.67% to $0.794
→ Only TRON (TRX) rose 2.19% due to support from the DeFi ecosystem.
Table: Comparison of Major Cryptocurrencies Performance on July 29, 2025
Asset Price 24-Hour Change 7-Day Change
Bitcoin (BTC) $118,702 -0.43% +9.53%
Ethereum (ETH) $3,793 -2.78% +51.66% (YTD)
Dogecoin (DOGE) $0.227 -7.09% -15.99%
Solana (SOL) $184.41 -4.45% -12% (weekly estimate)
BNB $828.28 -1.54% +5.24%
🏦 Three, Institutional Dynamics and Regulatory Progress
1. Institutional Accumulation and Product Innovation
Listed Companies Increasing Holdings:
→ Metaplanet increased its holdings by 780 BTC (worth $92.5 million), bringing total holdings to 17,132 BTC (about $2 billion).
→ SharpLink Gaming acquired 77,210 ETH ($295 million), Bit Digital raised $1 billion to increase its ETH holdings.
Payments Giants' Layout: PayPal launches 'Pay with Crypto' service, allowing US businesses to settle through BTC, ETH, and wallets like Coinbase.
2. Regulatory and Security Dynamics
US Legislative Breakthrough: (GENIUS Act) officially enacted, requiring stablecoins (like USDT) to maintain a 1:1 reserve, enhancing market transparency.
Exchange Risk Events: Coinbase plans to acquire the Indian exchange CoinDCX, which was hacked (loss of $44 million), highlighting security vulnerability concerns.
Anti-Money Laundering Action: China has dismantled a Bitcoin money laundering gang involved with $20 million, seizing 92 BTC.
🔮 Four, Future Outlook: Key Variables and Market Nodes
1. Short-term Catalysts
Ethereum Spot ETF Approval: SEC requests exchanges to expedite updates to 19b-4 filings; if approved, this will reshape the altcoin landscape.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Signals: If Powell sends a clear signal for a rate cut in September, it could trigger a new round of increases in risk assets.
Tech Stocks Earnings Realization: If AI investment guidance from Meta, Microsoft, etc. exceeds expectations, it may support Nasdaq's continued trend of hitting new highs.
2. Medium to Long-term Challenges
Divergence in Cryptocurrency Regulation: The US SEC-CFTC joint regulatory framework is advancing, while India mandates disclosure of crypto assets and Ghana issues licenses, showing global policy inconsistencies.
Macroeconomic Disturbances: The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.65, while US Treasury yields and geopolitical situations (Russia-Ukraine tensions, US-China tariff negotiations) remain common risk points across both markets.
The essence of the market is seeking new consensus amidst divergence: tech stocks use the certainty of AI profits to withstand volatility, Bitcoin builds a bottom with institutional ETF inflows, while altcoins are undergoing liquidity tests—only regulatory and technological breakthroughs can restart alpha opportunities.
The current market presents a pattern of 'strong US stocks + cryptocurrency divergence'; investors need to focus on three key turning points: Ethereum ETF decision, tech stocks' AI capital expenditure guidance, and Friday's non-farm data as the final anchor for Fed policy. These variables will determine the trajectory of risk assets in the second half of the year.