Bitcoin has been around for ten years. Some people have come and gone, some have left and come back, some come and never leave, and some leave and never return.
The vast majority of early Bitcoin players have already exited, and many people watched Bitcoin soar without getting on board. This is good news for us because if they were all on board now, would the price still be in the tens of thousands?
Hesitating to get on board and being eager to get off may be due to various reasons, but the main one is still that the vision in one's heart is not big enough.
Vision determines perspective, and perspective determines action.
When the price of Bitcoin was 10 yuan, they said it was too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin was 100 yuan, they said it was too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin was 1,000 yuan, they said it was too expensive.
When the price of Bitcoin was 10,000 yuan, they said it was too expensive.
Bitcoin seems to always be too expensive, and they never want to buy.
When the price of Bitcoin was 10 yuan, we said, it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin was 100 yuan, we said, it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin was 1,000 yuan, we said, it's still early.
When the price of Bitcoin was 10,000 yuan, we said, it's still early.
Bitcoin seems to always be still early, and we never want to sell.
Without a vision in mind, one might survive a bear market, but would definitely not hold during a bull market. When it rises, you will sell; do not doubt it. 480,000 Ge is a living example.
To remain steadfast regardless of bull or bear markets, the most important question to think through is: how big is its future?
Another hundred-fold increase? You are too pessimistic; a hundred-fold is too little. Let me share my vision.
The core application of Bitcoin is storing value, and its future goal is to become the preferred choice for people's store of value.
So, what did we use to store value before Bitcoin appeared? In other words, when we made some money and deducted our consumption, in what form would we save our wealth? They were mainly gold, currency, and real estate.
Figure 1. Total amount of world gold, currency, and real estate.
The total market value of gold globally is 7.7 trillion dollars, the total amount of broad money is 90.4 trillion dollars, and real estate is 217 trillion dollars.
The main use of gold now is for storing value, and in terms of storing value, Bitcoin is superior to gold in every aspect; surpassing gold in market value is just a matter of time.
Broad money includes: cash, demand and time deposits, securities company client margin, etc. Except for cash (which accounts for 8%) used for circulation, the rest is used for storing value.
The main use of real estate should still be for living and usage, but there is certainly a considerable proportion used for storing value. If it weren't for Bitcoin, I would probably also allocate most of my funds to buying a house. Since there are no proportions to check, we temporarily assume that 20% of real estate is used for storing value (this proportion does not affect the final result's magnitude).
So, how big is the global total store of value market? 7.7 + 90.4 × 92% + 217 × 20% = 134 trillion.
The total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million, with about 3 million permanently lost. Considering Bitcoin's absolute advantage in storing value compared to gold, currency, and real estate, each Bitcoin will rise to 7.5 million dollars, equivalent to 50 million yuan.
Is that all? Of course not.
The total wealth in the world is growing at a rate of 6% per year, and in 10 years, the total will be 1.8 times what it is now; in 20 years, it will be 3.2 times what it is now. Therefore, assuming that in 20 years, Bitcoin's store of value function is widely recognized, its price should be 160 million yuan.
The above calculations only consider Bitcoin's store of value function; if other factors are considered, Bitcoin's total market value will be even higher.
In other words, Bitcoin still has a thousand-fold growth potential. Every four years, when the production is halved and supply suddenly decreases, a new round of surges will come.
Sometimes, when I walk through the busiest areas of the city, weaving through the crowds and watching the flow of people, I think about what these people do for a living. How are their families? What are they busy pursuing all day long? How many of them know about Bitcoin? And how many understand Bitcoin's future?
Although Bitcoin once soared to 100,000 yuan, it is evident that 99% of the people still do not understand Bitcoin and do not hold any. This is certainly good news, as it also means that there is still huge room for Bitcoin's price to rise.
Currently, the version number of the Bitcoin Core client is v0.16.2. Although the Bitcoin network has been operating stably for nearly ten years, the client has not yet been upgraded to v1.0. We are actually just a group of beta users; the real users have not yet arrived.
If Bitcoin is compared to a child, then this child has not yet been born and is still just a fetus in the womb. Although it has grown millions of times from a fertilized egg to a fetus, there is still infinite growth potential from fetus to infant to child to adult in the future.
