The global crypto market is at a historic turning point! Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are rising, coupled with the countdown to the first debate of the U.S. elections, resulting in a severe clash of liquidity, policy risks, and technical signals in the crypto market. Bitcoin is oscillating around the critical resistance level of $117,000, with long and short positions surging 300%. Total betting on election prediction contracts on Polymarket has surpassed $1 billion, and every 1% fluctuation in the Republican winning probability is linked to more than 8% movement in BTC prices.

The fuse for a turning point has been lit:

1️⃣ Liquidity reconstruction: The market value of stablecoins has surpassed $252 billion, but the inflow of USDT has plummeted by 67% compared to last year. Retail investors' momentum has weakened, and whales are accelerating the sale of altcoins for BTC spot purchases.

2️⃣ Policy double-edged sword: The lawsuit by the U.S. SEC against Coinbase may trigger a regulatory earthquake, while the approval of a spot ETF for Ethereum could release over $50 billion in incremental funds.

3️⃣ Technical warning: The BTC weekly RSI has reached the overbought threshold of 78. If it falls below $113,000, it will trigger a 10% deep correction; conversely, if it breaks through $125,000, it may initiate a frenzy to hit $150,000.

Opportunities and risks coexist:

🔥 Altcoin season is brewing: The total locked value of RWA tokens on the Solana chain has surpassed $418 million, and the cross-chain throughput of NEAR Protocol has surged by 300%. Technical projects may become a new safe haven for funds.

⚠️ Leverage liquidation crisis: The total open contracts across the network still exceed $40 billion. If a black swan event occurs, altcoins could collectively be halved.

Retail survival guide:

✅ Keep spot positions below 50%, prioritizing allocations to blue-chip tokens like ETH and SOL that are resilient to downturns.

✅ Pay attention to the September FOMC meeting and public sentiment data regarding the elections; accumulate in batches if prices drop below $110,000.

❌ Stay away from high-leverage contracts and worthless tokens; the current market tolerance is at its lowest in nearly three years!

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