This is my story, and it is your story...
The number flashing on my phone screen felt like a scorching coin, burning my fingertips—$118,800. In the early hours of August 1, 2025, Bitcoin's price held the world in suspense once again. And I, this so-called 'insightful guide' in the eyes of friends and family, felt a mix of emotions inside, as if chewing wax.
"Bro, you’re amazing!" My cousin Xiao Lin's WeChat voice message popped up, the background noise chaotic, filled with uncontainable excitement, "Last year, I listened to you and put all my year-end bonus into Bitcoin at 18,000! Yesterday I checked my account, it's almost 7 times! My mom regrets not joining in!"
I pulled at the corners of my mouth, wanting to smile, but it felt more like a cramp. Last year's tumultuous period from the second half of 2022 to early 2023, with the aftershocks of FTX still reverberating, and the shadow of UST's collapse lingering, the market was rife with doomsday talk of cryptocurrencies nearing zero. Bitcoin plummeted from 69,000 in June 2021 all the way down to a low of 15,000. It was I, relying on years of experience navigating bull and bear markets, who sensed a glimmer of hope amidst despair.
During that time, I almost became the 'cryptocurrency strategic advisor' for the entire family and community.
"Sis, now is the safest time to bottom-fish Bitcoin. Don't be fooled by the current drop; historically, every major bear market has led to multiple returns! Just hold onto it, don’t move!" I earnestly advised my worried cousin, casually sending over a long string of Bitcoin halving history and institutional accumulation data screenshots.
"Uncle, don’t believe those random altcoins; they’ll freeze to death in this winter! The market is too fragile now; only Bitcoin's consensus can survive," I said to my eager uncle who wanted to take a gamble.
Even my usually conservative buddy Lao Hu, after my repeated persuasion and safety assurances (only buy Bitcoin, only buy Bitcoin!), gritted his teeth and invested half his fortune when Bitcoin hovered between 16,000 and 20,000 at the beginning of 2023.
Every word I said to them was heartfelt, stemming from a sense of responsibility and risk control (there was also a fear of taking responsibility for losses). 'Safe,' 'stable,' 'long-term holding,' 'only buy Bitcoin.' I was like a well-meaning nanny, firmly suppressing any thoughts they had of touching high-risk altcoins. I succeeded. In their accounts, there were only pure, shining BTC. Today, it has achieved an astonishing return of about six times.
The problem lies with me.
I will never forget that crazy summer of 2021. DeFi, NFT, Layer 1 battles... The air was filled with the hormones of 'the next hundredfold.' I had just built my own community, relying on my keen sense and some on-chain data analysis, along with my judgment of various information. Through two exchanges between ETH and ETC, I excluded all doubts and noise and accurately escaped at the peak of the community's collective jubilation, achieving a true hundredfold return. That experience is deeply etched in my soul like a brand—altcoins are the accelerators of wealth! In a bull market, their elasticity far exceeds that of Bitcoin!
Therefore, when I faced the golden pit of the bear market in 2022-2023, the 'experience' nourished by the hundredfold achievements of 2021 began to clamour: An opportunity has come! Bitcoin is stable as a base, altcoins seek excess returns! This is the way of professional players!
So, from the end of 2022 to mid-2023, I gradually began to accumulate. I invested 50% of my funds without hesitation into Bitcoin, which is the cornerstone of my belief. The other 50% was carefully deployed like an experienced general into what I considered 'highly promising' battlefields: new public chains in Layer 1 besides ETH, new iterative versions of oracle track leaders, and several emerging pioneers in the AI+Crypto concept... Each choice was based on my 'successful experience': strong community enthusiasm, narrative appeal, a certain technological foundation (or at least it seemed to have), and low early valuations.
I was confident, telling the community partners that this time we could replicate the glory of 2021, and a hundredfold return was within reach. In the early stages of the bull market, Bitcoin steadily rose, and several altcoins I had allocated also rose several times, yielding impressive profits on paper, and the community group was once again filled with familiar FOMO vibes. "See, I told you, the spring of altcoins has arrived; my allocation was right!"
However, this time, the script has changed.
Starting in the second half of 2024, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs detonated like a nuclear bomb in the traditional financial market. Massive institutional funds surged like a flood, rushing into this asset class that they regard as 'digital gold.' The influx of funds pushed up the price of Bitcoin and raised the threshold for the entire market. However, these institutional funds are extremely cautious about altcoins, especially projects with medium to small market caps.
Meanwhile, the sword of Damocles of regulation always hung over altcoins. The SEC's ambiguous stance on certain public chain tokens and doubts about the fundraising methods of some projects made the entire altcoin market tense. Liquidity quickly drained from most altcoins, like a receding tide.
"Bitcoin’s solo dance," this phrase began to circulate in the community, carrying a hint of cruel mockery. Those altcoin warriors I once placed high hopes on fell one by one.
New Layer 1? Slow technological progress, TVL (Total Value Locked) stagnating, token prices have plummeted by 70% from their highs.
The new version of the oracle leader? Exposed for having fraudulent project partners, the token was marked as risky by exchanges, and trading volume nearly dried up.
The most promising AI+Crypto project? The core team members parted ways due to ideological differences, development progress indefinitely delayed, prices nearing zero...
I felt like a hunter trapped in a snare, watching as the funds I invested in altcoins rapidly dwindled. Every attempt to average down felt like throwing money into a bottomless pit. It turned out that the hundredfold increase in 2021 was a dividend bestowed by the times, a 'rising tide lifts all boats' under the frenzy of incremental funds pouring in. The wave in 2024-2025 is characterized by high institutionalization and regulation; large funds only recognize the hardest 'consensus'—Bitcoin.
Those experiences that once lifted me to the sky became heavy shackles in a market where the fundamentals had completely changed.
Looking at the accounts of family and friends, that is true peace and happiness.
My cousin only knows Bitcoin and has no idea how to operate altcoins; the few BTC lying in her account made her smile from ear to ear.
After my cousin Xiao Lin bought Bitcoin last year based on my advice, he got busy with work and forgot about it completely, only to remember to check his account recently when news of the price spread like wildfire, immediately sending me that heart-sinking message: 'Amazing!'
Lao Hu excitedly invited me to dinner to thank me when Bitcoin broke 70,000, saying it was the first time in his life he had made so much from investing.
And in my community group, the once 'god' who explained on-chain data and analyzed project advantages and disadvantages now looked at their gains, as well as their own account:
Bitcoin portion: 50% of the principal, steadily increased by more than 5 times.
Altcoin portion: 50% of the principal, leaving a scene of devastation, with some overall losses exceeding 60%. Some yielded about three times returns.
Calculating: family and friends had a 100% average return of 6 times on Bitcoin; I made 5 times on half of my Bitcoin (about 2.5 times total principal), and the average return on altcoins was around 2 times, giving an overall return of about 3.5 times. Even their small gains couldn’t match mine!
In the community group, partners with large funds generally had 3 to 5 times returns due to their need to heavily invest in Bitcoin, while partners with small to medium funds generally benefited by 2 to 3 times, with those who joined the community later only breaking even. Everyone had joys and worries; the joy was that the vast majority outperformed, while the worry was that they did not meet their expected goals! Initially, they hoped for returns of dozens of times!
In the family group, everyone was happily sending red envelopes, thanking my 'wise leadership.' I could only bitterly type 'Congratulations to everyone,' followed by a string of [laughing and crying][laughing and crying][laughing and crying] emojis. No one knew the storm I was experiencing inside—a feeling of being brutally betrayed by my past glorious experiences.
Initially advising them to 'only buy Bitcoin' was my clearest judgment, ensuring their absolute safety. Ironically, on my own battlefield, this clarity was completely submerged by blind path dependency and empiricism. I was too obsessed with recreating yesterday's glory, forgetting that the market is always evolving. Those who seek a sword while standing on a boat will ultimately be cast aside by the river.
In the dead of night, I opened my crypto wallet, looking at that segment of altcoin holdings that I had pinned high hopes on but now lay lifeless, and quietly opened the trading interface. This time, my fingers hesitated not at all. Liquidation, stop-loss, return to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, I also got community partners to re-strategize; everyone must hold Bitcoin, and the remaining funds should be allocated to two or three promising mainstream coins!
I cleared my entire position and converted it into heavy Bitcoin. This time, I finally understood the weight of 'simplicity.'
Looking at the screen filled only with golden Bitcoin icons, I suddenly felt relieved. This noisy bull market is a grand solo dance, with only one true protagonist at the center of the stage. And I am grateful that my friends and family are always in the safest audience seats. As for me, this self-righteous dance partner, being able to timely change positions and see the direction of the spotlight again might be the most precious lesson this experience has left me—markets do not punish foolishness, but they never forgive those who do not evolve.
