The Hedera network is controlled by 39 nodes, all of which are corporations and no one else can set up a Hedera node without permission.
The Hedera nodes, controlled by (Google, LG, DELL, Standard Bank, etc.) validate transactions made on the network in exchange for the fees paid in HBAR, however, these fees are set in such a way that the payment is always equal to 0.0001 USD regardless of the price of the cryptocurrency.
This is an extremely low cost, so the profit of each node per transaction is extremely low, also remembering that computing power, servers, maintenance, etc. generate expenses for the companies operating these nodes.
So, in my opinion, the most likely scenario is not to start earning dollars from transaction fees, but rather to earn HBAR.
Suppose a constant fee X per transaction in dollars, if HBAR is expensive, the nodes would receive very few HBAR per transaction, if HBAR is cheap, the nodes would receive a lot of HBAR per transaction.
This suggests (in my eyes) a strategy of the nodes: keep HBAR cheap until the total is in circulation, then unleash an aggressive development of Hedera so that it appreciates once the nodes have accumulated enough HBAR.
My interpretation:
PHASE 1: Inflationary HBAR, during the following years, HBAR will be inflationary and the strong price increases would be justified with hype, small-scale adoption of some kind, etc.
The nodes keep the price of HBAR low through strategic quarterly unlocks (moderately to not lose trust), thus accumulating more HBAR in their wallets.
Hypothetical example: I make a transaction of 10 HBAR, the fee is 0.0001 USD which equals 1 HBAR, I send 9 HBAR, the node has 1 HBAR.
PHASE 2: Completion of HBAR unlocking. Deflationary HBAR.
Once all HBAR have been unlocked, the nodes will have accumulated enough HBAR in their wallets from previously made transaction fees.
Hypothetical example: The node that previously earned 1 HBAR has now accumulated enough HBAR and can afford for the price of HBAR to rise even though it would earn less HBAR per transaction (it would continue to earn only 0.0001 USD per transaction).
PHASE 3: Mass adoption, large-scale application of tokenization technology and smart contracts.
Now that HBAR is no longer inflationary, it is ready for value growth. The nodes will make decisions (with all the tools at their disposal) in such a way that the value of HBAR is maximized.
Hypothetical example: Now those 1 HBAR that the node earned no longer equal 0.0001 USD, but rather 1000 USD.
How long will HBAR be inflationary?: The nodes decide when and how much HBAR to unlock, impacting the selling pressure, although this will not always be the case.
Analysis of HBAR releases:
The data is visible on Binance, these are the historical patterns (I sent the table to an artificial intelligence to draw conclusions, even though the patterns are visible at first glance):
Most frequent days:
Day 01 (24 out of 25 events, 96%): All unlocks occur on the first day of the month, except one (2019-09-16).
Most frequent months (quarterly):January (6 events), April (6), July (6), October (6).
Recent Reduction: Since 2024, unlocks are lower (average <3%), possibly due to:
Progressive exhaustion of the maximum supply (50,000M HBAR).
Change in issuance policy (e.g., avoiding inflation or preparing for new phases).
The dates when HBAR could be released are important because, suppose that just before the first day of April we have huge hype, the price of HBAR has grown enormously, then it is foreseeable that the nodes will take advantage and release more HBAR on April 1, thus benefiting from its high value, generating inflation, selling pressure, and controlling that it does not become too expensive before the period they have to accumulate HBAR from transactions.
