When others panic, I am greedy! Bitcoin plummeted by 114,700 yesterday, and altcoins crashed! Today Bitcoin surged back, and the altcoin market is all in the green! Yesterday, Sponge clearly reminded in the article (Bloodbath! The reason for Bitcoin's crash exposed! Has Bitcoin hit the bottom? Can we buy the dip now? HELL, NXPC, ERA made a 20% profit! How to operate next?) : 'Points for placing long orders in batches: 115,055, 113,855, 112,850 (extreme low), defend at 112,000. Do not short at this level, it can recover quickly, and it is very difficult to short at high levels, you can hold on, at most it will pull back a small portion of profit.' Fans who followed Sponge's long orders made a killing, earning over 3,000 oil, and those who kept up can choose to take profits in batches.
BTC
Despite whales massively selling tens of thousands of Bitcoins, the price remains stable around 120,000 USD, indicating a strong market absorption capacity.
Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly pierced below 115,000 USD but was quickly pulled back by buying pressure, indicating that the buying support below remains strong. As the selling pressure from whales gradually releases, the likelihood of a deep decline in the market in the short term is relatively small.
However, the current market lacks obvious positive stimuli, so it is relatively difficult to attack directly. It is expected that this round of the market will enter a fluctuating adjustment period at the end of July and continue until early August. Subsequently, the market may initiate another wave of rise based on expectations of 'interest rate cuts', and coupled with the rate cut in September, the market may face a consolidation phase of one to two months.
Strategy suggestion:
The current bullish defense line for Bitcoin is around 112,000 USD, with support concentrated between 113,800 and 112,400 USD, where buying pressure is strong. The short-term resistance zone is between 118,800 and 119,600 USD, with a key pressure level at 121,000 USD.
If the market successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 121,000 USD, it is expected to challenge the previous high, with a target possibly looking at 125,000 USD.
Therefore, it is recommended to maintain a strategy of 'long at the lower end, short at the upper end' for range trading in the current range, controlling risks and responding flexibly.
ETH
Last night, ETH successively tested the two key support levels of 3600 and 3636. The daytime low reached 3570, rebounding to a high of 3746 at night. In contrast, the pullback low of 3600 last night was about 30 USD higher than the previous day's low, indicating enhanced buying support below.
Based on symmetrical rebound calculations, if we refer to the evening high of 3746, adding 30 to 60 points for inertia, the short-term could test the 3766 or 3812 area. These two positions correspond exactly to the structural rebound resistance zones at the 6-hour and 8-hour levels.
To strengthen further, Ethereum needs to break through the upper boundary of the current triangular consolidation pattern and effectively stand above the neck line shown in the chart. Only then can the market continue the upward trend and challenge previous highs.
Ethereum faces a selling pressure of 12 billion
On-chain data shows that there are currently 730,000 Ethereum waiting to be unstaked, with an average waiting time of 12 days. This is the largest amount of ETH withdrawal in Ethereum's history, and this number continues to rise.
This means that in 12 days, Ethereum will face a selling pressure of 2.5 billion USD. Converted to Bitcoin based on market cap ratio, this is equivalent to Bitcoin facing a selling pressure of 10 billion USD, which is significant.
Ethereum's last chance
The only positive factor currently is that Ethereum has the last 12-day window, which may be its last chance to challenge 4,000 USD before retreating. The next two weeks will be a critical time for determining the trend.
In addition to the Ethereum that will be unlocked soon, there are also about 250,000 ETH waiting to be staked, accounting for about one-third of the unlocked amount. However, the difference is that this portion of Ethereum waiting to be staked has already been purchased and will not create new buying pressure; while the unlocked portion carries the risk of market selling, the potential selling pressure may be concentrated and released in the next one to two weeks.
To be honest, I am still a bit reluctant. The indicators for the altcoin season have not yet reached their peak, and currently, it seems we have only completed about two-thirds; theoretically, the market can still extend for a while. However, multiple on-chain data have shown clear signals of profit-taking, so I choose to remain cautious. The current strategy is to focus on short-term long and short trades, without holding medium- to long-term positions.
SOL
SOL is about to experience a micro-strategy type of coin-stock linkage with Ethereum and Bitcoin. The ETF for SOL was approved in October, providing a purchasing channel for Wall Street, and unlike Ethereum's grayscale unlocking selling pressure, SOL should experience a surge.
Epic update for SOL is coming!
Because the latest proposal 0286 suggests upgrading the SOL network, raising the computational unit limit from 60 million to 100 million, which will boost the SOL network speed by 66%, which is very considerable, and it is expected to pass in a month. Regardless of whether it is ETF or upgrade news, retail investors are unaware of this, which is the information gap.
Yesterday the market plummeted, and Sponge knew the opportunity for a rebound had come, directly letting everyone go into contracts. Sponge took the opportunity to buy the dip on SOL at 177, earning a whopping 159%.
Next week's turning point
The biggest event of the month
(1) Federal Reserve meeting
Next Thursday at 2 AM, the probability of a rate cut in July is 0%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is 50/50. The more pressure Trump puts on Powell, the less likely the Fed is to cut rates. The latest expectations from CME show a 2.6% probability of a rate cut in July and a 61.9% probability in September, with a total of 1-2 rate cuts expected for the year.
(2) Trump's tariffs expire
Trump's policy to delay tariff imposition will officially end on August 1. The cryptocurrency and US stock markets previously saw a significant rise due to the tariff buffer period at the beginning of July, but once the tariffs are truly implemented at the beginning of August, the market may experience a 'good news priced in' scenario, leading to a correction, which cannot be ignored.
Therefore, we need to be prepared in advance. If the market experiences a significant drop, it will be an excellent opportunity to enter. The necessary 'bullets' should be ready to decisively increase positions during the adjustment to welcome the next round of rebound.
