Introduction: Ethereum's spot trading volume historically surpasses Bitcoin
A significant turning point for the cryptocurrency market - Ethereum's spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in over a year. According to CryptoQuant data, last week, Ethereum's spot trading volume reached $25.7 billion, while Bitcoin's was $24.4 billion. This marks the first time since June 2024 that Ethereum's spot trading volume has exceeded Bitcoin's. This change reflects not only a shift in market dynamics but also reveals an important shift in investors' risk preferences.
The surpassing of Ethereum's spot trading volume is not an isolated event but rather the result of various market forces working together. This phenomenon hides deep structural changes in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that the future market landscape may face a reshuffle. For investors and market participants, this change provides an opportunity to reassess investment strategies and seize new opportunities.
This report will analyze in depth the background, reasons, and market impact of Ethereum's spot trading volume surpassing Bitcoin, and explore the far-reaching implications this change may have on the future of the cryptocurrency market.
Market data: long-term trends in Ethereum's trading volume growth
Data support for the historic surpassing
The fact that Ethereum's spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin is not a coincidence but rather the result of a long-term trend. According to Coinbase data, in the first half of 2021, Ethereum's trading volume grew by 1461%, from $92 billion to $1.4 trillion, while Bitcoin's trading volume grew by 489%, from $356 billion to $2.1 trillion. This marks the first time Ethereum's trading volume growth has consistently outpaced Bitcoin's, demonstrating Ethereum's strong momentum in trading activity.
This trend is also reflected over a longer time scale. In 2022, the total trading volume on the Ethereum network (408.5 million transactions) was 338% higher than Bitcoin's trading volume (93.1 million transactions). Although Bitcoin still leads in metrics such as search volume, Ethereum has formed a clear advantage in network trading volume.
Recent performance of trading volume changes
Recent data shows that Ethereum's trading activity continues to maintain strong momentum. On February 3, 2025, Ethereum's daily spot trading volume reached $38 billion, setting a historical record, while Bitcoin's daily trading volume reached $49 billion, marking its third-highest record. This data indicates that while Bitcoin's trading volume still leads, Ethereum's trading volume is rapidly approaching and is expected to surpass it in the future.
Notably, the ratio of Ethereum futures trading volume to Bitcoin futures trading volume has risen from 42% in October 2024 to 98%, nearing historical highs. This data indicates that investor confidence in Ethereum is significantly increasing, with more traders willing to participate in Ethereum futures trading, reflecting a shift in market risk preferences.
Strong performance of the ETF market
The development of the Ethereum ETF market is an important driver of the growth in trading volume. On the first day of listing, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a trading volume of over $1 billion, with the Grayscale-issued Ethereum ETF recording the highest volume at nearly $458 million, accounting for nearly half of the total trading volume. This data indicates that institutional investors' interest in Ethereum is growing, providing new sources of funding for the market.
In June 2025, the Ethereum ETF achieved the best monthly performance in history, with inflows exceeding $3.5 billion, 70% higher than the previous peak of $2.08 billion in December 2024. The two weeks leading up to July 18 recorded the best net inflow performance; and there were no net outflows for ten consecutive weeks, marking the first time this has occurred in its 52-week existence. This sustained inflow of funds indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about Ethereum's long-term prospects.
Analysis of the underlying reasons for Ethereum's rise
Technical advantages and ecosystem development
The key factors for Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin lie in its technological advantages and its expanding ecosystem. Unlike Bitcoin, which primarily serves as a store of value, Ethereum is a multifunctional platform that supports smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps), catering to a broader range of use cases.
Ethereum is upgrading to 'ETH 2.0', which will significantly improve network performance, reduce transaction costs, and enhance energy efficiency. These improvements will make Ethereum more attractive to developers and users, further promoting the development of its ecosystem.
Ethereum's daily trading volume on the network has already exceeded Bitcoin by 28%. This data shows that although Bitcoin still leads in some trading volume metrics, Ethereum's network activity has shown a significant growth advantage.
The shift in investors' risk preferences
The growth of Ethereum's trading volume reflects a significant change in investors' risk preferences. In recent years, as the cryptocurrency market matures, investors have begun to seek diversified investments rather than being limited to Bitcoin as a single asset.
The expectations and approvals for spot Ethereum ETFs are important catalysts driving this change. Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the spot Ethereum ETF on May 23, ETH has risen approximately 30% relative to BTC, while Bitcoin has only increased by 9%. This data indicates that institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals are shifting their funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
The behavior of long-term holders of Ethereum also shows differences from Bitcoin investors. While Bitcoin investors have recently tended to take profits, long-term Ethereum holders have continued to accumulate, anticipating higher returns. Currently, it is estimated that about 27.5% of the total supply of Ethereum is staked, indicating that holders see more profit opportunities, and Ethereum's profitability has improved.
Market trends and catalysts
Multiple market factors have jointly driven the rapid growth of Ethereum's trading volume. The ongoing development of DeFi (decentralized finance) and NFT (non-fungible token) ecosystems are important catalysts that have driven Ethereum's network activity and trading volume growth.
In June 2024, after the Ethereum network upgraded to a proof-of-stake system, market confidence in Ethereum significantly increased. This technological upgrade not only improved network efficiency but also enhanced investors' confidence in Ethereum's long-term development.
Technical indicators also show positive signals. The ETH/BTC ratio has been continuously rising since May 17, reaching a two-week high of 0.05854 on May 23. Analysts predict that the ETH/BTC ratio will reach 0.1 within a few months. This prediction suggests that Ethereum's value relative to Bitcoin may significantly increase in the coming months.
Market impact: The multidimensional effects of Ethereum's rise
Impact on Bitcoin
Despite Ethereum's trading volume surpassing Bitcoin, Bitcoin still maintains its dominant position in market capitalization. In the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin returned to over $100,000, setting a new historical high, with a market capitalization share increasing to 62.1%. This data suggests that despite the decline in trading volume, Bitcoin remains the most recognized cryptocurrency in the market.
However, the relative decline in trading volume may indicate that some funds are flowing into Ethereum. Bitcoin's network trading volume has reached its lowest level since mid-2019 in the past few months, indicating a weakening of investor speculative desires, and the market may be entering a more stable but sluggish phase.
The behavior of long-term holders also reflects this change. Bitcoin investors tend to take profits, with about 90% of Bitcoin holders in a profitable state, but the market still shows a bearish trend. In contrast, Ethereum holders tend to accumulate and stake more, showing confidence in the future.
Driving force for the Ethereum ecosystem
The growth of Ethereum's trading volume will have a positive impact on its ecosystem. An increase in trading volume means enhanced network activity, which will attract more developers and projects to join the Ethereum ecosystem, creating a positive feedback loop.
Ethereum's price may also benefit from this. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that the rapidly growing institutional interest in Ethereum could trigger a supply shock and enable ETH to outperform Bitcoin in the next six months. 'The supply of ETH is limited, so I think ETH has a chance to surpass Bitcoin in the next three to six months.'
Price predictions for Ethereum are generally optimistic. It is expected that the price of ETH will rise to the range of $3,000 to $4,000 in 2024; further increasing to $5,000 to $6,000 in 2025; and by 2026, the price of ETH may break through the $7,000 mark. This prediction is based on factors such as the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade, the popularity of DeFi and NFTs, and the acceptance by institutional investors.
The ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies
Ethereum's strength may drive the performance of the entire altcoin market. As the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum's performance is often seen as a barometer for the altcoin market. Ethereum's rise could attract more funds into the cryptocurrency market, especially those Layer 2 solutions compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
Ethereum's rise may also impact the development of other Layer 1 blockchains. As Ethereum's network activity increases, emerging blockchain platforms like Solana and Polygon may face greater competitive pressure. These platforms may need to offer more attractive features or lower transaction costs to maintain their market share.
Future outlook: The long-term development trajectory of Ethereum and Bitcoin
Expert predictions and market outlook
Market analysts are generally optimistic about Ethereum's long-term development prospects. The continuous rise in Ethereum's price and the prediction that it will eventually surpass Bitcoin are based on several factors:
Technological advancement: Ethereum is transitioning to Phase 2.0, which will enhance Ethereum's scalability, security, and energy efficiency, increasing its appeal.
Active community: Ethereum has a more active and larger developer community, which fosters technological innovation and the development of application ecosystems on the Ethereum network.
Institutional recognition: As the cryptocurrency market gradually matures, more investors are beginning to pay attention to additional cryptocurrencies, and the continuous inflow of institutional capital will support Ethereum's price.
Ethereum has many supporters, possessing a consensus second only to Bitcoin, with lower risks. Based on the three investment factors (profitability, safety, liquidity), ETH is considered one of the best investment targets for the coming years. It is even highly likely that in a new bull market cycle, ETH's market capitalization will exceed that of BTC.
Potential risks and challenges
Despite the optimistic outlook, Ethereum and the cryptocurrency market still face various risks and challenges:
Regulatory uncertainty: Cryptocurrency regulatory policies may impact the value of Ethereum. The regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies globally remain unclear, which could affect market confidence.
Market volatility: the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and Ethereum's price may fluctuate significantly. Despite Ethereum's enormous development potential, its price movements remain highly volatile.
Technical challenges: Despite Ethereum's continuous improvements, scalability and efficiency issues remain to be resolved. As network activity increases, Ethereum may face performance bottlenecks.
Competitive pressure: As the cryptocurrency market continues to develop, more emerging cryptocurrencies are surfacing, putting some pressure on Ethereum's market share.
These risk factors remind investors to be cautious when participating in Ethereum investments, fully consider potential risks, and make adequate investment preparations.
Conclusion: Seizing new opportunities in the cryptocurrency market
The event of Ethereum's spot trading volume surpassing Bitcoin marks a new stage in the cryptocurrency market. With its technological advantages, ecosystem development, and shifts in investor preferences, Ethereum is reshaping the market landscape. While Bitcoin still maintains its dominant position in market capitalization, Ethereum's rise reminds us that the competitive landscape of the cryptocurrency market is changing.
This change provides new opportunities for investors. As Ethereum's trading volume increases and market attention rises, the price and market capitalization of Ethereum are expected to continue to grow. Investors may consider allocating part of their funds to Ethereum and related assets to diversify risks and seize new market opportunities.
However, investors should also remain rational and fully understand the risks and uncertainties of the cryptocurrency market. Before making investment decisions, they should fully understand the characteristics and risks of relevant assets and develop investment strategies that suit their risk tolerance.
The next few years will be a critical period for the development of the cryptocurrency market. How the competitive landscape between Ethereum and Bitcoin evolves, and what role other cryptocurrencies will play, will shape the future of digital assets. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics, seize trends, and make informed investment decisions.
