Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Could Reach $135K by Year-End — $199K in Optimistic Scenario, According to Citi Analysts
Citi forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $135K by the end of the year in its base case, with an optimistic target of $199K driven by ETF demand, user adoption, and macroeconomic factors.
Key Takeaways
Base case forecast: Bitcoin is expected to reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
Optimistic scenario: BTC could surge to $199,000 if ETF demand accelerates.
Pessimistic scenario: Weakness in stocks could drag BTC down to $64,000.
ETF inflows now account for 40% of BTC price movements, according to Citi.
Citi Refines Bitcoin Price Model for 2025
The Wall Street giant Citi (C) updated its Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC to reach $135,000 by the end of the year in its base case, and up to $199,000 in its most optimistic scenario.
A more pessimistic scenario — driven by weak stocks and weaker macroeconomic conditions — places Bitcoin at only $64,000, according to the bank's new report.
What is driving Citi's Bitcoin forecast?
Citi analysts identified three key factors shaping Bitcoin's trajectory:
1- User Adoption: A projected 20% increase in user growth supports BTC around $75,000.
2- Macroeconomic Conditions: Weak performance in stocks and gold subtracts about $3,200 from BTC's valuation.
3- Demand for ETFs: It is assumed that $15 billion in additional ETF flows add approximately $63,000 to the Bitcoin price model.
This combination produces the $135K target in the base case.
ETF inflows now dominate BTC price action
Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF flows have become a primary market driver.
Citi estimates that ETF flows now account for more than 40% of the price variation of BTC.
Institutional participation through ETFs, inclusion in indices, and regulatory clarity are increasingly important for Bitcoin valuation.
Citi analysts added:
"The trajectory of Bitcoin now depends as much on capital allocation strategies and investor flows as on technological adoption."
Upside risk: ETF demand increasing faster than expected
Citi notes that ETF inflows and user growth are outpacing projections — an optimistic tilt for BTC.
The acceleration of demand for ETFs could push BTC beyond the base case of $135K.
Network effects are deteriorating more slowly than models predicted, strengthening long-term adoption.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios by the End of the Year
Base case: $135,000
Optimistic case: $199,000
Pessimistic case: $64,000
With ETF demand driving more than 40% of recent BTC movements, Citi's optimistic case assumes continued institutional accumulation — while the pessimistic case reflects macro weakness spilling over into cryptocurrency markets, according to CoinDesk.