Today, the market is overall relatively calm.
As emphasized repeatedly recently, the current main line of the market logic still revolves around tariff policies and monetary policies—whether Powell is reappointed falls under the latter category. As long as these two main lines do not show violent fluctuations, the overall market will remain relatively stable.
From a certain perspective, Trump's focus on tariffs is a positive factor, and the US's continued support for the AI industry has indirectly pushed the crypto market to some extent. It’s worth mentioning that Musk's collaboration between XAI and the prediction market platform Kalshi (with GROK involved) brings new imaginative space for decentralized narratives, such as assisting AI in capturing the movements of 'smart money', optimizing prompt design, etc. In fact, a friend discussed related directions with me last month, and I hope to see more of these cross-border products in the future.
Regarding market conditions, in the last 24 hours, a total of 206,250 people across the network were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of about 674 million USD. Among them, long positions faced liquidations of about 525 million USD, while short positions faced liquidations of about 149 million USD. Market sentiment fluctuations are mainly concentrated on the short-term leverage level.
Recently, the list of the biggest gainers is mostly new coins on Binance.
Although these types of coins can rise dozens of points at times, or even double, they should not be overly pursued for long-term patterns. Most of them belong to short-term trends, making it difficult to sustain rallies like SPK. In most cases, a sharp rise is just to prepare for unloading. If you have already positioned yourself in similar projects, be sure to take profits in batches and secure your gains; do not be greedy and stay in the battle.
Last night, the first half saw a peak, and in the early morning, a second top was formed on a reduced volume. The value of going short is still increasing.
People often ask me at night when the first wave rises to a high point: Should we go short directly? My usual advice is—to wait for the price to pull back first, do a short-term long, earn from that segment, and then pay attention to whether there's a second surge in the early morning. By then, considering going short will be safer.
This morning, I noticed a capital outflow signal for BTC, so I opened a small short position in ETH accordingly.
The logic is simple: if BTC is weak and ETH is stagnant, ETH will likely drop, so I chose to short it.
The overall strategy is still the old saying: in a volatile market, go long at the bottom and short at the top. However, be mindful—if the market adjustment takes too long, it is advisable not to continue operating this way, as it can easily lead to being caught in a reverse pull.
BTC Analysis
Pay attention to support levels of 112,000 USD and 109,500 USD; the resistance level is temporarily set at 119,200 USD and 120,500 USD.
Currently, focus on the high resistance zone between 116,411 USD and 119,200 USD. Before breaking the upper and lower tracks, look for opportunities for long and short operations; once broken, just follow the rules and stop-loss.
ETH Analysis
Focus on support levels of 3486 USD and 3339 USD, and the resistance level is temporarily set at 3892 USD.
To be honest, Bitcoin can be tried with light positions for shorting; if there’s an opportunity, you can participate. Regarding Ethereum, apart from trying a light position when monitoring the second top in the early morning, I do not recommend placing orders too low. The daily fluctuations can easily reach 200-300 USD, which was unimaginable a week ago, but has become the norm in the past two or three days, so vigilance is needed to avoid being 'boiled frog' by the main force.
Operational suggestions: In terms of contracts, it is still recommended to focus on mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, avoiding chasing high-volatility small coins. For altcoins, mainly focus on light positions in the spot market, and do not recommend participating in contract trading yet. Prioritize risk control. If today’s market continues to show a bullish trend, pay close attention to the following two long signals:
1. The price quickly recovers after breaking through key support; 2. A significant volume reversal occurs after reaching the support level.
Once such a trend appears, consider going long in the short term along with the trend. Additionally, today is Friday, and if the intra-day bullish trend continues to strengthen, the probability of a V-shaped reversal in the evening will significantly increase, so prepare in advance.
The highest realm of trading is waiting. This sounds simple, but it's very difficult to practice.
In trading, you must be clear about: when to hold a full position, when to hold a short position, what the logic of waiting is, and what the entry signals are.
More importantly, when the signals are unclear or have not appeared for a long time, you need to have a strategy to respond.
All these need to be built on solid cognition and a stable strategic framework.
If you rush into the market without clear signals and logical support, it's easy to fall into emotional trading, leading to losses.
Let’s talk about the points to wait for currently:
BTC: Optimistic 114,862, Ideal 111,980, Extreme 110,797
ETH: Optimistic 3370, Ideal 3200-3247, Extreme 3116-3162
SOL: Optimistic 160-165, Ideal 155, Extreme 140-148
Fans who followed me early on used to just hold onto altcoins without understanding trading. Now, they are gradually adjusting and trying to combine investment and trading. Trading is difficult because you have to learn a lot of things without masters guiding you, and with one's own low comprehension and unwillingness to study, it’s hard to succeed.
In fact, the key point every day is simple: as long as you anchor the day's highest and lowest points well, all problems are solved. After that, there may still be minor adjustments, but once it adjusts to a low point, you can buy the dip.
