Bitcoin continues to maintain a consolidation trend, the results of the US-Japan tariff negotiations may become a key turning point

According to the latest analysis from HTX Research's X post, although #比特币 surged to $121,800 yesterday, it later fell back to the $118,000 range for oscillation and consolidation, indicating that it is currently in a stage of accumulation.

Additionally, on-chain data shows that the overall average profit rate of market chips has risen to about 57%, indicating that although there is still room to reach historical highs, the upward momentum in the short term has shown weakness. This is primarily due to ongoing selling pressure from short-term profit-taking chips, and the current market structure has not yet made enough room for the next wave of upward movement.

Moreover, sudden changes in the Japanese political situation are attracting market attention. Due to the ruling coalition suffering a heavy setback in the Senate elections, Shigeru Ishiba insists on remaining in office, but his political capital has significantly declined. This has not only caused the USD/JPY to retreat back to the 145–150 range after short-term fluctuations but may also weaken Japan's bargaining power in the upcoming US-Japan tariff negotiations. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain a wait-and-see approach before the political uncertainty is resolved, making it difficult to initiate interest rate hikes. The depreciation of the yen and pressure on the stock market are contributing to an overall decline in risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, relatively positive signals are emerging in the global trade sector. The European Union and the United States reached a tariff coordination agreement in the early hours of July 24, avoiding the previously scheduled tax increase plan on July 25, temporarily easing the tension in transatlantic supply chains and sparking a slight rebound in European and American stock markets. However, the market generally believes that the tariff agreement is only a short-term benefit and is insufficient to change global macroeconomic uncertainty.

In addition, the sustained high volume of Bitcoin futures positions, the implied volatility in the options market remaining at a medium-high level, along with a slowdown in net inflows of stablecoins, all point to institutional funds still being in a wait-and-see mode.

It is believed that if Bitcoin is to start a major upward trend in the future, it may need to further digest short-term floating profit chips and eliminate macroeconomic uncertainty (the results of the US-Japan trade negotiations). Before these conditions are met, the price of Bitcoin is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $115,000 to $123,000.

In summary, the results of the US-Japan #关税 negotiations will become a key barometer for the financial market in August, with its chain reaction affecting the global trade pattern, macroeconomic situation, and subsequently influencing investor sentiment and the performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.