Ethereum's Tough Battle: The 3650 High is Hard to Attack, Trump's Tariff Black Swan is Coming
Captain's trend analysis: Now at the position of $3644, both bulls and bears are locked in a stalemate; this is likely the main force's last drill before the 'big bomb' of Trump's tariff policy lands!
The chart conceals three key situations
The $3650 resistance level is like the 'Gates of Hell'
Currently, Ethereum's price is stuck at $3644, just a little short of the first resistance level at $3650. It failed three times to push upwards yesterday, indicating that the bears have deployed a large 'force' at this position. If it cannot break through with volume today, short-term selling pressure is very likely.
Technical indicator signals are chaotic
The MACD golden cross may be a trap: Although the DIF has crossed above the DEA forming a golden cross, the volume is only 12.83, which is clearly insufficient, more like a technical rebound.
The moving averages formed a death triangle: MA20 barely supports the price, but MA80 and the upper Bollinger band have formed a 'high-pressure blockade line', making the $3700 mark a steel fortress that's hard to break.
Trading volume sings the opposite tune: yesterday's trading volume was 123K, today is estimated to be only 136K, not even reaching the MA5 average volume. Without sufficient trading volume to support, an upward movement is like a charge without bullets, fundamentally unreliable.
The critical lifeline is at $3610
The $3610 level is the intersection of the middle Bollinger band and MA20. Once breached, the price will drop directly to $3570. Over $250 million of leveraged long positions are gathered here, and once it breaks, it will inevitably trigger massive sell-offs.
Trump's tariff policy changes the market rules
Last night, news suddenly broke that Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 15% - 50% globally, which is like a black swan bomb, bringing two major variables.
Hedge funds may flow into the crypto market
Referring to the situation in March 2020 when the pandemic caused the market to crash, traditional markets panicked while Bitcoin and Ethereum surged 40% in a single day. If the tariff negotiations between the EU and the US break down, funds may flood into the crypto market, and Ethereum's price could directly surge to $3700.
Major on-chain players are taking action
Whale address 0x7a95 transferred 42,000 Ethereum this morning, just lying in wait around $3610. These large holders specifically bet on policy black swans; the $3570 - $3650 range may be their target area.
Historical cases warn: Beware of the main force's 'false breakthrough and true harvesting'
Do you remember May 23 this year? Ethereum was also sideways near $3650, and at that time, rumors of the ETF passing drove the price up to $3720, followed by a 7% crash in one hour, liquidating $180 million of leveraged long positions. The current situation is very similar to that time:
The moving average suppression situation is the same, with MA80 forming strong resistance.
Volume contraction situation is similar, with both below the MA5 average volume.
External variables are also the same, with significant policy uncertainties.
The main force likes to 'slaughter' retail investors with news at such times.
Today's operation suggestions
Confirm the breakthrough before taking action
If the trading volume expands and the price stabilizes above $3650, you can go long, targeting $3700.
But do not hold positions for more than 4 hours; be quick in and out.
Must run if it falls below $3610
$3610 is the lifeline for stop-losses; once it falls below, reduce positions to 30%, and consider actions only after the price stabilizes at $3570.
Pay attention to EU statements
If news comes that 'the US-EU tariff agreement has broken down', immediately go long; if you see news of 'reaching a preliminary consensus', decisively take a short position.
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