1. Overall Analysis
Recent prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend.
In the short term, although prices have found support at the lower Bollinger Band and have experienced several tentative rebounds, due to the increasing bearish momentum bars of the MACD indicator, and the downward divergence of the DIF and DEA lines, the overall situation remains bearish. In the future, prices may continue to fluctuate downward and test the support below. The short-term resistance is concentrated around the mid Bollinger Band at 3610.93, while the short-term support is near the lower Bollinger Band at 3546.38.
Recommendation: The current market is in a fluctuating downward channel, suggesting a conservative approach. Aggressive investors: You may attempt light long positions when prices approach the lower Bollinger Band and are accompanied by significant volume decrease, but strict stop-loss must be set (recommended stop-loss below 3546.38); if prices encounter strong resistance at the mid Bollinger Band during a rebound and fail to break through, consider light short positions.
Conservative investors: Wait for prices to gain clear signals of stopping the decline (such as a bullish engulfing pattern or MACD momentum turning positive), and only after prices effectively stabilize above the mid Bollinger Band at 3610.93, consider attempting to build long positions at the bottom; otherwise, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines. Control your position size to avoid heavy trading, and closely monitor key breakout performances and other market signals (such as changes in trading volume) to assist in judging future directions.
2. Technical Analysis
K-line Pattern: Recently, a "Black Three Soldiers" formation has been followed by a "Hanging Man", suggesting a brief stabilization of the downward trend. If a "Doji" appears subsequently, one should be wary of a potential reversal. MACD: The DIF and DEA are below the zero axis and opening downwards, with the green momentum bars gradually lengthening, indicating the continuation of the bearish trend. BOLL: The K-line is operating near the lower band, but the channel is overall contracting, with the mid-band continuously declining reflecting the dominance of the bears.
3. Potential Buy and Sell Points
Buy Point: 3550 USDT (close to the lower Bollinger Band (3546.38), with a support area, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound) Long Stop-Loss Point: 3520 USDT (if it falls below 3526.50 (recent low), it indicates the continuation of the downward trend) Sell Point: 3610 USDT (close to the mid Bollinger Band (3610.93), which is a short-term resistance level, with pullback pressure) Short Stop-Loss Point: 3675 USDT (if it breaks through the upper Bollinger Band (3675.48), it shows the possibility of continued upward trend)
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