💥 Possible Bitcoin Crash in the Near Future — A Rational Scenario with Numbers

1. Current Price (approximately): $120,000–130,000

After a rapid rise — an overheated market, mass FOMO, a lot of leverage and derivatives.

📉 Potential Trigger for the Drop:

— The Fed sharply tightens monetary policy (rates rise above expectations).

— A large ETF starts taking profits, withdrawing $1–2 billion.

— Regulations: SEC blocks a major exchange or attacks Tether/USDT.

— Global risk-off — crisis in traditional markets (for example, S&P 500 crash).

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🔻 Possible Drop Dynamics:

Stage BTC Price Comment

Initial Crash ~$100,000 First wave of profit-taking

Panic $80,000–$70,000 Stops are triggered, futures liquidations

Deep Drawdown $55,000–$45,000 Mass retail capitulation

Potential Bottom ~$40,000 Strong support level and interest from long-term investors

🧠 What Happens Next?

Total Drop from Peak: -65%–70%

This corresponds to classic Bitcoin corrections after growth cycles:

— 2014: -85%

— 2018: -84%

— 2022: -77%

— 2025? — possibly not an exception.

Recovery Time: from 12 to 24 months

Price may fluctuate between $40k and $70k for years before a new surge

⚖️ Conclusion - don't believe me.