1. The circulating market capitalization and total market capitalization should be low. The total market capitalization of public chains should ideally be below 50 million, and for dapp protocols, below 5 million. A low circulating market capitalization is easy to understand. If the market capitalization is too high, there is not enough room for growth, so the lower, the better. Why must the total market capitalization be low? Because in the following 1-2 years, tokens will be gradually released. If the total market capitalization is too high, it means that the project team (market makers) does not need to drive up the price; they can get rich just by selling off their holdings. Even if it drops tenfold, there is still a high price and profit.
2. The ceiling of the track should be high. At least during a bull market, the valuation should reach over 1 billion USD. If it is a meme coin, refer to Dogecoin; if it is a public chain, refer to ETH, SOL, MATIC; if it is a dapp or other protocols, refer to UNI, AAVE, LDO, etc.
3. New narratives should not involve overly niche tracks. It is best to solve practical problems. New narratives should represent long-term value discovery, not short-term cyclical speculation. For example, the current AIGPU computing power narrative, with safer, faster, and more decentralized public chains, spans several tracks like the metaverse, chain games, AR, and other foundational infrastructures.
4. Hundredfold dark horse coins are definitely in places that nobody cares about. Because coins that are well-known across the network are basically at high starting prices (ICP), or have normal valuations (ARB), do you think their unit prices can increase by 100 times? When they open, the total market capitalization is in the hundreds of billions, even thousands of billions; let alone rising by 100 times, even rising by 10 times would match ETH and BTC.
5. Early hundredfold coins generally have very poor liquidity, often found on-chain or in small exchanges. Therefore, many newcomers, when they see others recommending early coins, do not research their value and keep saying they don't want to go to small exchanges; they seem too much like scam coins, and it's too troublesome to buy since there are no apps to participate. These are just superficial phenomena; they fail to see the essence of value. In 2021, when I bought Magic, it was very troublesome to cross-chain, but it later increased by ten times in a month. In February 2023, when I bought PPI, it also needed double wallets for cross-chain; I tried many exchanges that didn't support it, and later Gate supported Espace withdrawals. Later, BRC20 tokens also had high thresholds, requiring points and OTC, which was very troublesome. In short, high thresholds are a necessary path that blocks newcomers. Binance has no threshold, but it is very difficult to make money there; it is mostly about selling off after listing. Refer to the recent trends of RDNT, GNS, PEPE, and FLOKI.
6. The best time for a token to go live is either at the end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market. When researching or buying, the time from launch to wash trading should ideally be 6-12 months, with a circulation rate greater than 50%. KAS was launched in May 2022, with deep wash trading for about 6 months, and its highest increase this year has been over 100 times. PPI was launched in May 2022, and after 9 months of deep wash trading, it started to surge; its current circulation rate is around 60%, with the highest increase this year being about 50 times.
7. Low unit price, with many zeros after the decimal point. If the unit price starts at several hundred U, or several thousand U, it will scare away over 80% of the retail investors. Especially in a bull market, new retail investors rushing in only look at the unit price and do not understand market capitalization. Meme coins and public chain coins typically start with very low unit prices, with 3-5 zeros being quite normal.
8. It is best to choose public chains or leading protocols on public chains. The easiest way to make money in the crypto space is through public chains. In the bull market of 2021, over ten hundredfold public chain coins emerged, such as SOL, MATIC, AVAX, and FTM, each with its advantages. Many leading protocols also emerged, like UNI, AAVE, CAKEXVS, etc. Why don't I participate in hot coins from Hong Kong, like ACH and LINAKDY? Because they are not public chains, and many of these projects have very short lifecycles; they just end after a wave of speculation. However, public chains are different; they are always trending and continuously developing ecosystems and market capitalizations.
9. The background of the founder, team, investment institutions, and financing amount should be reliable. The founder should ideally be a celebrity in the crypto world, such as a core team member of Ethereum. For example, the founder of KAS is Y, and the founder of ROSE is Professor Song. Involvement of well-known institutions in the investment acts as an endorsement. The financing amount and project valuation are also very important; good public chain projects generally have very high valuations in the tens of billions.
10. Do not participate if it violates the logic of value investing. What does it mean to violate the logic of value investing? For example, consider stable AMPL and a previous deflationary token on arb, where the more you hold, the fewer coins you have. Whenever you see something like this, no matter how innovative it seems, do not participate; it will surely end in disaster, leading to severe losses. AMPL has caused significant losses for many big influencers. If you think you are a natural sprinter, then forget what I said.
11. Try not to participate in old coins unless there is a very strong new narrative. For example, this round's RNDR and CFX are both old coins, but their narratives are very good, perfectly fitting the main theme of this new bull market. The former spans several tracks, including AIGPU, NFT, chain games, AR, VR, and the metaverse, and its foundational setup is difficult to eliminate. The latter is a better, faster, and safer public chain, supported by national government resources. Additionally, Hong Kong aims to become the core of the new round of WEB3.O, making CFX a central figure in the hot topic of Hong Kong. Apart from this hot topic in Hong Kong, it is also a relatively good public chain, with its own ecosystem and value.
12. Choose the leading projects in the track, and try not to choose the later ones. For hot topics in Hong Kong, I chose CFX, and for the ecosystem coins on it, I chose the dex token PPI, as all ecosystem coins on CFX are incubated from PPI, making it the leading ecosystem coin.
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