The news from the financial circle is becoming increasingly outrageous—first it's said there may be a 400 basis point rate cut, then there are rumors of Powell being accused and possibly facing five years in prison. In the face of these mixed messages, Chang'an has one thing to say: don't be fooled by these gimmicks; it's much better to look at the market itself seriously.
In fact, as early as June, Chang'an talked about this matter. He felt at that time that Powell's policy pressure would eventually become unbearable, and it was highly probable that he would loosen up and cut rates in advance; it wouldn’t be surprising if it happened in July. Now everyone is chasing and asking how much can be cut this year? When will it start? Chang'an is very straightforward: no one can guarantee the specific timing and extent. The “expectations” and “predictions” that are shouted every day in the market are mostly just illusions created by insiders and cannot be taken seriously.
But there is a core viewpoint that Chang'an has not changed: this year, it is highly likely that there will be a rate cut of 200 to 400 basis points, and the key point is—that this rate cut must be completed quickly in a short period. Why say this? Because if it's dragged out, little by little, it won't save the current economy and won't stimulate market sentiment.
Think about it carefully, what drives the economy the most in a bull market? Simply put, it’s about getting retail investors to dive into the market all at once, pushing sentiment to its highest point, and then deliberately creating some volatility—this is the “engine” that drives GDP. If the Federal Reserve slowly lowers rates like squeezing toothpaste, just like Ethereum's sluggish rise before, and retail investors are steadily getting on board, then how can this bull market continue? Remember, a bull market doesn’t come to ensure everyone makes money.
Looking back at this wave of market trends, why were so many short sellers 'blown away' below 3850 points? Why did so many people either miss the boat or sell their chips early? Simply put, it’s because there was a lack of a clear 'false pressure level' to scare people. The market has always gone against human nature— the more you think it should correct, the more it wants to surge; the more you think it can stabilize, the more it wants to splash cold water on you.
That's why Chang'an always says that the rhythm of this rate cut is exactly the same as his judgment on Ethereum at the end of June. At that time he said: “As long as Ethereum stands firm at 2250, we will see 3800 next month.” And what happened? The market really moved that way. What does this indicate? The market has always exploded suddenly; there’s no such thing as a slow buildup. By the time you understand the trend, you've already missed the most critical point.
In the end, don’t be led by the flood of rumors. If you really want to follow the market, remember: the more chaotic it seems, the more you need to focus on the core logic—the strength and speed of the rate cut, which is key to determining the next direction. As for those gimmicks? Just laugh it off.#鲍威尔或将下台 #BTC走势分析 