New Theory of Possibility in Futures Trading – Based on a Real Experiment (Sunday, 20 July 2025)

On Sunday, July 20, 2025, I conducted a 2-hour experimental futures trading session from 00:00 to 02:00 UTC. The idea was to test whether opening a wide range of positions across many tokens could improve the probability of success—even when you have little or no technical analysis involved. This strategy is purely probability-based and focuses on volume rather than precision.

During the experiment, I opened a total of 126 positions, broken into 97 Longs (74 wins, 23 losses) and 29 Shorts (2 wins, 27 losses). Each position used a 1 USDT margin with 10x isolated leverage. The trade style was market order only, and every position was controlled using TP/SL based on ROI%.

Here’s the result:
Despite having many losses, the overall gain after closing all trades was +2.76 USDT. This proves that if you spread your positions widely enough, even with many failed entries, the winners can outweigh the losers.

Let’s break down the simple math behind this “Wide Net Theory”:
>Total Long positions that succeeded: 74
>Total Short positions that succeeded: 2
>So, total wins = 76, and total losses = 50

If each win brings in even just 0.4 USDT and each loss costs around 0.3–0.4 USDT, the total net result will hover around breakeven or small gains depending on your SL/TP setup.

But the real key is this: Don’t rely on just one or two trades to succeed. You play the field, like fishing with 100 rods. You don’t know which one catches the fish, but the more you throw, the more chances you get.

🔧 Trading Settings I Used:
>Margin Mode: Isolated
>Leverage: 10x
>Order Type: Market
>Margin per position: 1 USDT
>TP: 300% ROI (If confident, otherwise 20–60%)
>SL: 30–35% ROI (Sometimes lowered to 15–25% for underperforming tokens)
>Both Long and Short trades used these rules.

💡 Mistakes I Noticed (So You Learn from Me):
>I re-entered a trade on a rising token after profit—only to lose it all. Greed is deadly.
>After 02:00 UTC, market patterns changed. Some bearish tokens suddenly pumped. Don’t enter blindly after this early window.
>I forgot to set SL in some trades and got liquidated. Always set a Stop Loss, even if small.
>TP is optional. If you feel confident and monitor the chart, you can exit manually.
>Use BNB for trading fees to save a little more in the long run.

🎯 Tips to Improve Your Strategy:
>Set a realistic daily goal—like 10 USDT profit per day.
>Focus on top gainers early, from top to bottom, and don’t trade the same token twice in one session.
>If you're not confident in reading RSI, MACD, or chart patterns, then switch focus to probability and execution speed.
>This experiment shows that even without technical tools, you can stack the odds in your favor by trading a larger sample size.

🔥 Why This Works:
In crypto trading, nothing is certain. Indicators are just that—indications, not guarantees. Instead of trying to predict the unpredictable, I decided to increase my probability of success by sheer volume of trades. Among 100+ positions, at least a few will pump hard—those are your luck charms. If you control the losses and maximize gains on those few big winners, you're ahead.

This method may not be for everyone, and it doesn’t guarantee profits. But it’s a mindset shift—not just relying on signals or luck, but using both volume and disciplined risk to move forward.

⚠️ Final Note:
This is just my experiment. I’m not recommending anyone copy it. In the end, it’s your money, your trades, your risks—and your responsibility. But I hope it gives you a new perspective on how possibility and probability can work in your favor.

— End of Report —