### 🧭 Executive Summary
The analysis based on Elliott Wave theory indicates that Ethereum (⟨c-34/⟩) is currently transitioning through **Wave V** of a bullish cycle that started in 2022. This pattern is a typical five-wave structure, and now the cryptocurrency is in its final phase, expecting to reach an ambitious target close to **10,000 USD**.
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Current cycle structure
1. **Wave I** – Initial upward impulse, marked the beginning of the cycle in 2022.
2. **Wave II** – Significant correction lasting until 2023.
3. **Wave III** – Strong bullish expansion, surpassing previous highs with high energy.
4. **Wave IV** – Prolonged lateral consolidation, forming a flat structure.
5. **Wave V** – Current final upward leg, with a pattern resembling an “expanded diagonal,” indicating that it may be deploying subwaves a, b, and c.
Details of the current scenario
* **Subwave (a)** would have already been completed after the recent breakout above the resistance of the channel between waves III and IV.
* A small **correction in subwave (b)** is now expected for retesting support before the final phase.
* After the retest, the **subwave (c)** would come, which could trigger the final impulsive wave towards the target of **10,000 USD**.
Short-term Projection
Another analysis on the 4-hour chart shows that Ethereum completed a corrective double zigzag structure in Wave 4 (W-X-Y), and at this moment, it would be developing the first part of its final impulse within Wave 5. The end of the impulse (subwave C) could reach approximately **4,100 USD**, which would lead into the main bullish phase.
**Suggested intraday trading plan:**
* **Buy entry**: around 3,650 USD (retest zone and end of subwave b).
* **Target (TP)**: in the area of 4,100 USD to complete subwave C.
* **Stop-loss**: below immediate support that would not invalidate the structure (for example, below the base of subwave b).
Macro perspective: final target at 10,000 USD
* The final stage of the cycle (Wave V) often shows an **expanded diagonal**, which is characteristic of a culminating movement before a trend change.
* If Ethereum continues to respect the 5-wave structure, these final upward movements could round off extremely optimistic targets, potentially **reaching 10,000 USD**.
Risks and invalidation points
* If ETH falls below the minimum of Wave IV (pre-breakout zone) or fails to overcome this resistance in the retest, the Elliott count would be invalidated.
* Also, watch volumes: although the price rose by ~45% in the last month, daily volume has decreased, which could indicate weak momentum fundamentals.
📝 Conclusion
Ethereum is in a key phase, transitioning through **Wave V** of a long-term bullish cycle. In the short term, it could complete subwave C near 4,100 USD before embarking on the main leg towards higher levels. If the bullish structure holds (respecting supports and containing retracements), it could be on track for an ambitious goal of **10,000 USD**, although the outlook remains volatile and subject to risks.
This analysis can serve as a basis for your investment or trading strategy.
Monitor key support levels, trading volume, and maintain adequate risk management.
