Updated July 23, 2025

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK


•$BTC reached a historic high of 123,000 USD on July 14. (Reuters)

• The ~#ETFs spot recorded twelve sessions of inflows and totals ≈50,000 M USD in 2025. (Mitrade)

• The 2024 halving keeps the daily issuance at 450 BTC, reinforcing scarcity. (coinex.network)

• The GENIUS Act is now law in the U.S.#TrumpBitcoinEmpire , providing regulatory certainty and attracting institutional capital. (Reuters, cbsnews.com)



TECHNICAL TREND


• Structure of higher highs and higher lows since June.

• Active pattern: pennant consolidation after a rally of +14% (July 8-15). (coinex.network)

• EMAs 20-50-100 (daily) remain below the price and act as support.

• Daily RSI at 48 (neutral) and MACD compressed → possible directional breakout.



KEY LEVELS

Immediate support  : 116,500-118,000 USD

Major support   : 113,000 USD

Critical resistance : 120,000-123,000 USD

Short-term target : 126,000-128,000 USD (upon breaking 123 K)

Q3 2025 projection : 140,000-145,000 USD (if ETF flows persist) (coindesk.com)



PRICE SCENARIOS

  1. Bullish (≈60%) Break above 123 K with volume → 126-128 K in 2-4 weeks; extension to 140-145 K in 8-12 weeks if ETF inflows continue.

  2. Controlled pullback (≈35%) Rejection at 120-123 K and drop to 113 K; bullish structure intact if it holds support.

  3. Bearish (≈5%) Daily close < 110 K would invalidate the trend and open 100-105 K.



TRADING KEYS

  1. Watch ETF spot inflows/outflows as a thermometer of institutional demand.


  2. Buy in increments at supports; protect positions below 113 K.


  3. Confirm breakouts with volume before following the price.


Will it reach $BTC first to 126 K USD or will it retest 113 K USD?

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$BTC