Old Zhao's view on today's ETH market: Gaining strength to break through, but don’t let FOMO cloud your judgment!
Current status: ETH dipped below 3700 dollars this morning but has pulled back, currently reported around 3730 dollars. The 24-hour fluctuation is not large, but longs and shorts are repeatedly tugging at 3700-3800, resembling the calm before a storm.
My core viewpoint:
1. Key watershed: 3800 dollars is the gate to heaven or hell.
From a technical perspective, ETH is stuck in an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, 3800-4100 is the top of the triangle that has built up for many years. Once it breaks out with volume, the target is directly above 4000.
But if today's surge fails, for example, if it touches 3850 and then drops back, the short-term may retest the 3625-3576 support area, which is the recent main cost area for institutions. If it holds, it can survive.
Extreme situation: If it breaks below 3450, run quickly! The next stop is below 3200.
2. Funding situation: Institutions are still buying, but retail leverage has started to smoke.
Positive news:
U.S. ETH ETF bought a maximum of 717 million dollars in a single day (BlackRock alone accounted for over 500 million), total holdings exceeded 7.09 billion dollars, institutions are investing real money.
About 30% of ETH is staked and locked, the circulating supply is tightening, combined with ETF accumulation, a supply crisis is brewing.
Negative news:
RSI overbought (71.43), contract liquidations reached 259 million dollars in 24 hours, a double kill for longs and shorts! Retail investors easily become fuel when chasing highs.
3. News front: Two major events today will set the direction!
Coinbase launches compliant perpetual contracts (today!): This may stimulate short-term volatility, especially pay attention to ETH-related speculation after the U.S. stock market opens.
White House cryptocurrency policy report (to be published tomorrow morning): If it signals regulatory loosening, such as banks connecting with cryptocurrency enterprises, ETH may break through 4000; if it leans hawkish, beware of good news turning into bad.
Finally, let's talk about something practical:
ETH has risen from 2400+ to 3800, a 50% increase without deep correction; technically it does need to catch its breath. But the long-term logic is solid: ETF continues to drain liquidity + staking locks liquidity + L1 expansion (gas limit raised to 37.3 million, throughput up 20%), hold on to the spot!
Today's script: Fluctuate and gather strength during the day, watch the U.S. stock market and the White House report in the evening. Remember: Bull markets often have quick drops, don’t be greedy with leverage!
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the composure to see the direction amidst the cannon fire. Our community was also busy last night, successfully grasping the golden pit market!
Still the same saying, those who have eaten meat are already enjoying it, while those who haven't are still doubting if it's real. If you are doing it right, why are your pockets empty? If you don't know what effective points are, take a look at my brief introduction, I'll guide you through it.
