1. Overall Analysis
Recently, the price performance has been characterized by weak fluctuations, with prices operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, primarily showing bearish candles. The MACD indicator indicates that bearish momentum is gradually strengthening, while bullish rebounds are weak, leading to an overall sluggish trend.
In the short term, the price may continue to trend downward in a fluctuating manner, and attention should be paid to the support levels around the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 3709.13 and 3680.00. At the same time, since the market has repeatedly tested the lower support and formed long lower shadows, it indicates that while bearish momentum is strong, there is also some buying support. If the price can stabilize above the support level, a slight rebound may occur in the short term, but the expected height of the rebound is limited, with resistance referenced around the middle band near 3838.63.
Suggestion: Short-term traders can observe the performance of the Bollinger Bands' lower band and the support level at 3680. If the support holds effectively and a stabilization signal appears, a light position can be attempted for a low-buy operation, but strict stop-loss should be set. Medium to long-term investors should remain on the sidelines, waiting for market sentiment to stabilize or clear bottom signals before proceeding with positioning. If the price breaks key support, it is recommended to adopt a trend-following strategy, possibly lightly shorting the market, and pay attention to further downward target levels. Monitor whether there is any external positive information or changes in macro factors that may impact the current weak pattern, allowing for timely strategy adjustments.
2. Technical Analysis
Candlestick Pattern: The dark cloud cover pattern shows a strengthening bearish trend, with the current market being weak within fluctuations and possibly dipping in the short term. MACD: Both the DIF line and DEA line are below the zero axis, indicating significant bearish strength, with green histogram bars increasing and continued downward pressure in the market. BOLL: The candlestick is between the middle band and the lower band, with decreasing volatility, possibly continuing to test support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands.
3. Potential Buy and Sell Points
Buy Point: 3709 USDT (close to the support of the Bollinger Bands' lower band, and there have been multiple long lower shadows previously, potentially forming a short-term rebound) Long Stop Loss Point: 3680 USDT (if it falls below the key low of 3680, it indicates that the downward trend may continue) Sell Point: 3838 USDT (close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and previous resistance levels, possibly under pressure to retreat) Short Stop Loss Point: 3860 USDT (breaking above the previous high near the resistance of 3857.82 indicates that the upward trend may continue)
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