Bull markets are born in despair and grow in hesitation: 'BTC's Silent Breakout Battle'
Today's BTC performance resembles an athlete preparing for a jump: the 4-hour K-line is stuck at the $123,000 resistance level, with bearish engulfing and hammer candlesticks alternating. The moving averages are bullishly aligned but have flattened, and trading volume has decreased by 15%, yet the derivatives open interest has increased to $86.1 billion. This contradictory data is precisely the 'calm before the storm' before a trend change.
News Front: Threefold Good News Stacked
Institutions continue to increase their positions: Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $1.1 billion for three consecutive weeks. Japan’s Metaplanet has purchased an additional 797 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 16,352 BTC.
Political and Technological Endorsement: Musk changes his avatar to 'Laser Eyes' to support BTC, Trump proposes BlackRock's CEO for Treasury Secretary. If true, it will open traditional financial channels.
Regulatory Breakthrough: The U.S. (GENIUS Act) is advancing stablecoin compliance, and the UK FCA's new regulations require 100% asset collateral. Under the trend of global regulatory convergence, compliant stablecoins may become the new infrastructure for cross-border payments.
Technical Analysis: Balancing Techniques at Key Levels
The price is building an 'air platform' in the range of $107,000 to $123,000, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to the midline of $118,727. The MACD histogram remains negative but has not expanded, and the KDJ has crossed bearish, with the J value still at 76, indicating neither strong downward momentum nor a breakthrough opportunity. Notably, the double bottom structure formed on July 20 has not been effectively broken, preserving a key defense line for the bulls.
Personal Opinion: Beware of the 'False Breakout' Trap
The current market exhibits characteristics of 'institutional control and retail indecision': CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surpassed $12 billion, but Google search interest is only 45. This 'high sentiment, low attention' combination often breeds a trend reversal similar to the silence before BTC broke $20,000 in 2020. From July 19 to July 21, the market remained in a volatile range, neither going up nor down. Why is it unable to hold? Because there is no capital entering the market, leading to no upward or downward trends from either side.
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Operational Suggestions
Aggressive: Lightly test long positions near the current price of $117,695 with a stop loss at $116,678 and a target of $120,387. Conservative: Wait for a breakout at $123,000 or a pullback to the $110,000 ETF average cost area before entering. This has a higher safety margin.
Conclusion
Will this round of BTC's silent rise replicate the 'slow bull' script of breaking $20,000 in 2020, or will it reenact the 'crazy bull' frenzy of $50,000 in 2021? What is your judgment? You can leave your thoughts in the comments.
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