The crypto market has flipped! Bitcoin collapsed, altcoins are going crazy! Brothers, I'm Old Zhao, no nonsense today, let's get straight to the point, Bitcoin is flat at high positions, but altcoins are surging in a one-sided trend, is this an opportunity or a trap behind it? I'll clarify it for you!
Bitcoin's market cap share dropped to 57%, the direct trigger is the explosive market during altcoin season, especially with ETH leading, which reflects a deeper increase in market risk preference.
1. Why can't Bitcoin rise anymore? The big players are cutting the leeks with three knives!
1. Good news reversal plays smoothly
Last week, Trump just signed the (Genius Act), logically this should be a big positive, right? But Bitcoin performed a high dive, with a 24-hour volatility exceeding $3000, dropping to a low of 116,000! $800 million evaporated in an instant, and 190,000 accounts were liquidated. Why? Institutions had pre-positioned, and when the good news landed, they collectively sold off, a typical case of buying the expectation and selling the fact.
Old Zhao: Big funds are playing psychological warfare! Retail investors chasing highs will be buried, remember: once the good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news!
2. Leveraged explosions trigger chain reactions
The total contract open interest across the network soared to $86 billion, hitting a historic high. A slight shake in Bitcoin's market leads to a dual slaughter of longs and shorts! When it drops below the critical level of 117,500, it directly triggers $620 million in long liquidations, with 2,300 BTC pledged by whales automatically sold off, igniting a 'drop → liquidation → further drop' death spiral.
Old Zhao: High leverage is playing with fire! Bull markets still bury people!
3. Technical Warning M Top
Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 124,000 and 116,000 this week, forming an M-shaped double top, with bullish momentum waning. Standard Chartered analysts warn: $90,000 is the lifeline, if it falls below, it could crash to $80,000!
Old Zhao: Don't listen to the eternal bull market hype! If BTC loses the 50-day moving average (117,800), buckle up!
2. Why is Ethereum surging unilaterally? Institutions have gone all out!
1. Hundreds of billions in funds crazily sweeping the market
In the past week, institutional wallets have been buying ETH without blinking: on July 20, two new institutional addresses swallowed 58,000 ETH in a single day; a giant whale withdrew 13,000 ETH from Binance; the listed company SharpLink spent a whopping 493 million USD this month to accumulate 157,000 ETH, directly topping the corporate holding list.
Old Zhao: What investment is this? This is grabbing shares!
2. ETF channel drains exchanges
Ethereum spot ETF completely detonated! In the past 5 days, net inflow reached $2.2 billion, doubling from the previous week, BlackRock's ETHA scale surged to $9.17 billion, almost half the market. What's even more intense: 317,000 ETH ($1.18 billion) disappeared from exchanges, all transferred to cold wallets for locking.
Old Zhao: Exchanges are out of stock, how can prices not soar? Supply and demand reversal is the way to go!
3. Short squeeze market fuels the fire
Ethereum's current short liquidation amount has broken records, analysts state: if it rises another 10% to $4000, shorts will face $1 billion in liquidations! This wave of 'shorts buried three meters high' will directly push ETH to $4000.
Old Zhao: As long as shorts are alive, bulls won't stop! The short squeeze market is only halfway up!
3. Behind the huge profits, three major risks cannot be ignored!
Technical overbought warning: Ethereum's RSI approaches the overbought zone at 75, NUPL indicator enters the 'belief-denial' area, historical patterns indicate a possible short-term pullback to $3530.
Regulatory black swan strikes: Trump's family exposed to hold shares in a stablecoin company, Democrats question 'legislative profit-making', once policy credibility is shaken, the market will inevitably tremble.
In altcoin season, it's hard to distinguish the real from the fake: Bitcoin's dominance has fallen to 57%, but institutional funds only recognize BTC/ETH, smaller coins may be drained!
July 21 Contract Strategy
[Variety ETH]
[Style] Swing
[Direction] Long
[Position] Current price head high, replenishment price 3795
[Zhi Ying] First target 3835, second target 3855—3900
[Zhi Sun 3775]
The truth of the institutional bull market is: big funds eat meat, while small retail investors drink soup.
Bitcoin's correction is for gathering strength, Ethereum's charge is an ecological explosion!
The market never lacks opportunities, what it lacks is the composure to see the direction amidst the cannon fire.
Follow Old Zhao for daily entry strategies, know in advance.#以太坊突破3700 #山寨币突破 $ETH
