Ethereum surged to $3,800 this time, not due to retail frenzy, but because institutions are frantically buying, backed by several key turning points. Combining the current market conditions and signals, Old Zhao directly lays out the facts:
1. Institutions are scrambling for purchases: it's not about buying coins, it's about seizing digital oil.
BlackRock is going crazy: buying $540 million worth of ETH in a single day, equivalent to $380,000 entering the market every minute. This type of buying is not something retail investors can follow; it seems like they want to empty the exchanges of ETH, and the current supply has fallen to a nine-year low, with liquidity quickly being drained.
Public companies adopting ETH: SharpLink Gaming holds 358,000 ETH, more than the Ethereum Foundation; mining company BitMine also holds 300,000 ETH, aiming to capture 5% of the entire network's ETH. They are not speculating; they are treating ETH as corporate reserve assets, much like MicroStrategy hoarding Bitcoin in the past.
Whales are synchronously taking action: Yesterday, a mysterious large holder bought $50 million worth of ETH at an average price of $3,714. Such large orders often imply that professional capital believes the current price is still in the discounted range.
Personal View: Institutional buying is not short-term speculation, but rather a focus on ETH's income-generating asset properties (staking rewards + price growth). If BlackRock's staking ETF is approved in October, ETH could attract conservative funds like a dividend stock, which would be the real disruptive point.
2. Policy Shift: Trump gives the green light to the crypto market.
(Genius Act) Implementation: The U.S. House of Representatives quickly passed a stablecoin regulatory framework, and Trump is about to sign it. Legalizing stablecoins is equivalent to giving a license to the ETH network—USDT and USDC are running on Ethereum, and on-chain trading demand will skyrocket.
Pension funds are about to enter: Trump plans to allow 401(k) retirement accounts to buy cryptocurrencies, opening the floodgates for trillions in funds. Imagine: If pension funds allocate 1% to ETH, that would mean a buying power of billions of dollars.
Hong Kong's Winning Follow-Up: PanDu Fund collaborates with OSL to plan to launch Asia's first staking Ethereum ETF, and Eastern funds are watching closely.
Personal View: The shift from negative to positive regulation is the core engine of this bull market. However, caution is needed: after policies are implemented, there may be a 'sell the fact' pullback, especially if the SEC delays the approval of staking ETFs.
Personal Operation Strategy:
Short-term: Reduce position by 1/3 near $3,800, buy back on pullbacks to $3,650-$3,610;
Medium-term: Stop loss if it falls below $3,500, increase position if it breaks above $3,850, target $4,200;
Long-term: Staking + holding, ignoring volatility.
3. Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment! These risks are accumulating.
Warning of a double-edged sword for bulls and bears: $259 million was liquidated across the network in 24 hours, affecting 160,000 people. Contract leverage has become a meat grinder, especially when prices spike or plummet.
Signs of major players unloading: Large sell orders appeared around $3,700, with the Bollinger Bands opening extremely wide, indicating significant pullback pressure.
Maximum Black Swan: If the Ethereum core developer meeting rejects EIP-7907 (institutional staking proposal) tonight, it may trigger a panic sell-off.
Summary: The bull market moves forward amidst divergence.
This round of ETH action is a triple resonance of institutional accumulation + policy dividends + technical breakthroughs. $4,000 is not the endpoint!
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the calmness to see the direction amidst the chaos.
Follow Old Zhao for daily strategies, know in advance.
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