📊 Summary of the current scenario
Current price: 3.4413 USDT
24h high: 3.4855
24h low: 3.3547
Volume (XRP): 190M
Volume (USDT): 652M
30-day variation: +59.37%
1-year variation: +527.75% (long-term structural bullish)
Order book indicator: 64.76% active buyers vs 35.24% sellers (predominant buying strength)
---
🔍 1. Price Action and Market Structure
✅ Trend:
Clearly consolidated bullish, with breakout from the previous consolidation between ~1.9 and ~2.2.
Candle with the highest volume broke the resistance of 2.6 with strength, and the market accelerated to 3.66 before correcting.
⚠️ Key Support Region:
3.18 ~ 3.22: old resistance that turned into support. Ideal for re-entry if the price corrects with low volume.
2.95 ~ 3.00: secondary support, confluencing with Fibonacci and MM21.
🟢 Immediate Resistance Region:
3.66 ~ 3.75: marked previous top, ideal partial realization zone for bought operations.
Above 3.75: price discovery area and projection of new waves.
---
📈 2. Moving Averages (institutional)
MA8 (short, yellow): 3.189 → below the current price → immediate dynamic support.
MA20 (pink): 2.694 → strong secondary medium-term support.
MA200 (purple): 2.409 → long-term support, still distant.
🔎 Institutional reading:
The averages are expanding with a positive slope and correct order (MA8 > MA20 > MA200) → confirmed upward trend.
---
📊 3. Volume and Institutional Interpretation
Volume exploded in the last bullish candles → confirmation of institutional entry.
The correction of the last candles had decreasing volume, reinforcing that it is a healthy correction and not a reversal.
📌 Institutional signal: Buyers still in control, waiting for accumulation zones for new expansion.
---
🧮 4. Fibonacci and Target Projection
Retracement (swing 1.9083 → 3.6607)
0.382: 3.1212 ✅ → important pullback support.
0.5: 2.7845
0.618: 2.4477
> Corrections up to 0.382 are typical of healthy impulsive waves (Elliot).
If it respects the zone of 3.12 ~ 3.18, a new wave of bullish is expected.
Target projection (Fibonacci expansion)
If it breaks the top 3.6607:
Target 1.618: 4.83
Target 2.618: 6.09
---
🌊 5. Elliott Waves (Possible Projection)
Current count (hypothetical):
Wave 1: 1.90 → 2.6
Wave 2 (pullback): 2.6 → 2.2
Wave 3 (expansion): 2.2 → 3.66
Wave 4 (current correction): 3.66 → ??? (estimated between 3.18 ~ 3.28)
Wave 5 (in formation): potential target between 4.6 and 4.8
🔎 If Wave 4 corrects gently and does not invade Wave 1's region (maximum 2.6), the pattern is valid.
---
📍 6. Entry, Stop, and Exit Strategy
🟢 Entries (Buy)
1. Ideal entry (retest):
Region 3.18 ~ 3.22 → pullback at support and MM8
Confirm with a reversal candle (hammer or bullish engulfing)
2. Aggressive entry (accumulation):
If it lateralizes between 3.30 ~ 3.40 with decreasing volume
3. Re-entry post-breakout:
Breaking 3.66 with strong volume (breakout to target 4.8)
---
🔻 Technical Stops
Below 3.12 (short term)
Below 2.94 (safe stop with MM20 and 0.5 retracement)
Below 2.60 invalidates the structure
---
📈 Trailing Stop (Profit Protection)
Activate trailing stop from 3.80, with:
Trigger: 3.80
Distance: 4.5% to 6% (for current volatility)
---
🟡 Exits (Partial and Total)
Partial 1: 3.75 ~ 3.85 (immediate resistance)
Partial 2: 4.20 (psychological zone)
End / target of Elliot/Fibo: 4.80 ~ 4.90
---
✅ Strategic Operational Summary
Parameter Value
Main trend Structural bullish (short, medium, and long term)
Immediate support 3.18 ~ 3.22
Resistance 3.66 (breakout confirms new high)
Best entry Pullback at 3.18 with reversal candle
Fibo Targets 4.20 / 4.83 / 6.09
Stop-loss Below 3.12 / safer below 2.94
Trailing stop Trigger: 3.80 / Distance: 4.5% ~
6%
Institutional volume Strong recent entry / Correction without volume.
