Recently, the market has been speculating on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch":

- July: It is almost certain (95.3% probability) that the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates, with only a 4.7% chance of a rate cut, which can basically be ignored.

- September: The situation is different, with the probability of maintaining interest rates dropping to 39.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 58%, and even a 2.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Why does the market think there might be a rate cut in September?

1. Inflation is not so fierce anymore: Recently, prices in the U.S. have not been rising as quickly, which has eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve.

2. The economy is a bit weak: Some data suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as strong, and if they don't cut rates, they might not be able to sustain it.

3. Other central banks are also easing: Many countries around the world are starting to cut rates, and the Federal Reserve may need to follow suit.

What does this mean for ordinary people?

- Stock market: If rate cut expectations rise, the stock market may see a preemptive rally.

- Mortgage and loans: After a rate cut, borrowing costs may decrease, easing the burden of mortgages.

- Deposit interest: The interest given by banks may also decrease, leading to lower returns on savings.

However, don't jump to conclusions too early.

These data are just market speculations; whether the Federal Reserve will actually cut rates will depend on the economic data in the coming months, such as employment and inflation. If inflation rebounds or the economy suddenly improves, the Federal Reserve may change its mind again.

So, for friends looking to invest or take out loans, keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's dynamics, but don't rush to go all in; wait for a more stable situation!