$ETH Today is the weekend, and Ethereum has reached a recent high of 3782 in the past few months. So who is driving this wave of increase in Ethereum? Retail investors certainly cannot be.

The core driving forces are the ETF + corporate hoarding of coins + three major policies + technical breakthroughs at 3500.

Secondary forces include the expansion of stablecoin staking yields, market sentiment FOMO, and capital rotation in altcoins.

In the future, key focus on ETF approvals, the situation of breaking through 3800, and the progress of staking functionality. In the short term, it is not recommended to chase high prices; wait for a pullback to below 3500 for gradual positioning. If it breaks through 3800, then the target is 4k.

1. Pullback signal, RSI(6)=79.06 is considered severely overbought; caution is needed for profit-taking pressure. If it falls below 3480, it will quickly test the 3330–3450 range, which is a concentrated area for long liquidations.

2. Confirmation of breakthrough; if it holds above 3800, it will open up upward space to 4000. It is advisable to chase cautiously with a stop loss at 3780.

3. Macro impact - Upgraded U.S. tariff policy, Trump has increased tariffs on the EU to 15–20%, which may suppress risk assets. The "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" is a medium-term positive, but market sentiment is sensitive in the short term.

Key resistance support for Ethereum:

Strong resistance at 3790–3800, upper Bollinger Band + previous high, short selling entry point.

Dynamic resistance at 3750, high point on July 20, confirming bullish breakout.

Intraday support at 3560–3580, 4-hour EMA, long position defense area.

Strong band support at 3450–3500, long liquidation zone, band accumulation position.

Current operation: the price is close to strong resistance at 3800, not advisable to chase high; wait for a pullback or confirmation of a breakout before taking the next steps.

Proactive response method: If it pulls back to around 3500, gradually lay out long positions with a stop loss at 3480; if it breaks through 3800, follow the trend and target 4000.