$ETH Is there an altcoin season in 2025?
1️⃣ From history, altcoin seasons typically occur after signals of BTC's dominance peak, then BTC reaches new highs, funds flow to ETH, and eventually spill into the altcoin market, accompanied by a continued decline in BTC's dominance. This situation also occurred last year, but the altcoin market only experienced a month of rally, and there was no widespread increase, leading to disappointment, as past experiences failed in today's market structure. Will this experience work again this time?
The saddest part of this round is that retail investors can no longer afford BTC.
Meanwhile, BTC's dominance has remained strong and rising
Now BTC's dominance is starting to decline
Are you willing to believe that this time the altcoin season will really come?
Let's conduct potential analysis together
2️⃣ ETH surged 21.7% in the past 7 days
Broke through $3600, hitting a new high for the year
Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $726 million in one day (BlackRock accounted for $499 million)
Total inflow in July reached 2.27 billion, institutional funds accelerating entry
3️⃣ BTC dominance is declining
- Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage decreased by 2.59% to 63.09% in a week; historical references indicate that this signal of decline often predicts an altcoin season explosion?
4️⃣ Altcoin Season Index rebounds
Funding has increased from 15 at the end of June to 39 (critical value 75) flowing into altcoins
5️⃣ When will ETH lead altcoins to take off?
Current progress:
ETH has broken through the key resistance level of $2800, and the technical chart has formed a 'cup and handle' pattern. If it stabilizes above $3700, will it trigger a larger-scale altcoin market?
Time window:
Historical reference:
After BTC's new high in 2021, ETH reached a new high in one month
ETH delayed from 2017 to explode in 2018
Based on historical reference, ETH is expected to accelerate in the next 1-2 months
(Institutional buying + staking leading to supply tightening)
6️⃣ Recent trading volume of altcoins has significantly increased, indicating potential capital inflow, but I still want to say that a widespread increase is impossible (the number of altcoins is astonishing today). Sector rotation is still possible.
7️⃣ Regarding the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it has been on a downward trend for nearly three years, recently starting to rebound. Historically, BTC's performance has always been stronger than ETH, but now the exchange rate has broken an important level, 0.03. If it can reverse and stay above here on the daily and weekly lines, ETH will continue to outperform BTC.
My own trading strategy is for reference only
ETH spot holders: I will choose to buy in batches again at support levels (not necessary for perfect buy points)
For those who have not entered: layout SOL, ETH at dips, with better odds than BTC.
⚠️ Risk warning:
- Avoid chasing MEME coins
- Profit-taking discipline:
Take profit in batches when profit ≥ 50%, retreat if it falls below the 20-day line, it's very simple
⚠️ Key indicators to watch:
BTC Dominance: If it falls below 60%, there is a probability of an altcoin market explosion, but this is just a short-sighted approach,,,,,
- Greed index: current 69 (mid-high stage) may have a short-term pullback, but the medium-term trend is still up
⚠️ Summary
ETH is the engine of the altcoin market—institutional buying + technical breakthroughs have ignited the fuse, with a possibility of continuing to reach new highs within 2 months.
> Current action plan:
> 1. Heavy positions/SOL spot
> 2. Lurking for fundamentally strong coins
> 3. Leave 20% of the position for MEME lottery
> In a bull market, do not guess the top, but remember:
Greed index > 90, do not leverage, prepare to exit the stage$BTC
DYDR
I am not an analyst
The above content is for reference only
