### Trading Operation: Gold (XAU/USD) Pullback Play
**Date:** July 21, 2025 (Week Ahead)
**Instrument:** XAU/USD (Spot Gold)
**Timeframe:** 4-Hour Chart
#### 📊 **Technical Setup**
1. **Trend Structure**:
- Gold broke above the descending channel (blue) on July 15, confirming a bullish reversal.
- Current price retesting the **$2,410** breakout zone (former resistance → support).
2. **Key Levels**:
- **Support**: $2,410 (Channel breakout + 50% Fibonacci retracement).
- **Resistance**: $2,460 (YTD high) → $2,500 (psychological target).
- **Stop Loss**: $2,392 (below swing low & 61.8% Fib).
3. **Confirmation Signals**:
- RSI (14): Cooling from 70 → 45 (healthy pullback).
- MACD: Histogram flattening near zero, potential bullish crossover.
#### 🧩 **Catalysts**
- **Fed Rate Cut Pricing**: 85% chance of a September cut (CME FedWatch) → tailwind for gold.
- **Geopolitics**: Middle East tensions may revive safe-haven bids.
#### ⚔️ **Trade Strategy**
- **Entry**: $2,410–2,415 (limit order).
- **Stop Loss**: $2,392 (-0.8% risk).
- **Take Profit**:
- TP1: $2,440 (daily pivot)
- TP2: $2,460 (YTD high)
- TP3: $2,500 (stretch target)
- **Risk-Reward**: 1:3.5 (max).
#### 📉 **Invalidation Scenario**
- Close below $2,392 invalidates the setup → wait for deeper dip to $2,370.
---
**Visuals**:
[Simulated 4H Chart: Gold retesting $2,410 support]
```
RESISTANCE: $2,460 ────────────────┐
│
TP2: $2,440 ────────────────────────┤
│
CURRENT: $2,415 ────────🔴 ENTRY ZONE│
SUPPORT: $2,410 ────────┬───────────┤
│ │
STOP LOSS: $2,392 ──────┘ │
```
**Execution Window**: July 21–22 (Asian/London sessions).
**Position Size**: 1–2% portfolio risk.
**Disclaimer**:
> This is not financial advice. Monitor CPI data (July 22) & Fed speakers. Adjust stops if volatility spikes.
Let me know if you want the *real-time alert* version! 🚀
