#美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案 The plan released is favorable for Ethereum, as most stablecoins are based on the Ethereum chain. These two days #以太坊连续两日领涨 the Air Force fuel is too strong, Ethereum is crazily aiming for 3600 #ETH突破3600 , exceeding most people's expectations; how much longer can Ethereum go wild?
1. Ethereum's Pessimistic Long-term Trend Script
【Ethereum's Pessimistic Long-term Trend Script】
（1）The black line is an adjustment to the blue line (bear market).
（2）Ethereum is currently in the historical cycle 4 wave, still in the bear market adjustment of the 4th wave of the super cycle 1 wave; there will be rebounds in the bear market, and the rebounds can also be very strong.
（3）Currently in the cycle 4-xx wave, the target for the xx wave is around 4100 in August or around 4868 in October-December, which may even significantly exceed 4868, such as 5213.87-6171.26. The xx wave must be three upward segments, which can be purely zigzag adjustment waves (ending in August) or double zigzag adjustment waves (ending in October-December).
（4）The cycle 4-z wave correction will not break through the highest point of the cycle 1 wave, which is 1420-1440.
（5）After the end of cycle 4 wave, it will be cycle 5 wave, and cycle 5 wave is the last wave of the super cycle 1 wave in a bull market.
2. Ethereum's Optimistic Long-term Trend Script
【Ethereum's Optimistic Long-term Trend Script】
（1）Ethereum has many scripts; this is one of the most optimistic long-term trend scripts for Ethereum.
（2）Ethereum is currently in the historical cycle 5 wave, which is the last wave of the bull market in Ethereum's super cycle 1 wave.
（3）Currently in the cycle 5-3 wave, the target for cycle 5-3 wave is 4100 or above, with the end time node in late July or August.
（4）The cycle 5-4 wave correction will not break through 2879, with the end time node in August or September.
（5）The end time for the cycle 5-5 wave is in October-December, with targets of 5213.87-6171.26.
（6）However, this script has a fatal flaw: the low point of the cycle 4 wave has broken through the high point of the cycle 1 wave, which strict wave theory experts believe is invalid.
However, there is a faction of wave theory experts who believe that as long as it can quickly recover, it does not count as a valid breakdown; this faction believes that as long as it does not break down effectively, exceptions are allowed.
Time is the best proof; we will see if this is the case by the end of the year.
3. Ethereum Market Analysis
【Newbie Learning Points Community Ethereum Market Analysis 2025-07-18 20:04】
（1）The starting point of Ethereum's 3rd wave is at 2372 on July 2, with the wave counting method according to the proposal made on July 10: 【Wave Counting Method 2: The third segment evolves into a larger degree of rise】.
（2）Currently at the end of the 3-5 wave or entering the 4 wave correction (the correction must drop below 280.59 to preliminarily judge that it has fully entered the 4 wave correction). On the night of July 18, after the spike did not break 3673.84, the possibility of reaching the peak of the 3-5 wave has greatly increased.
（3）The 4th wave correction is at the lower Bollinger band of the 4-hour or 6-hour chart. Assuming 3673.84 is the peak of the 3-5 wave, then ideally it will be 3393.24-3283.59-3176.92, with a small chance of reaching 3023.42. The time node is between July 20 and July 22. The correction is supported by the green Gann angle line.
（4）The ideal target for the 5th wave rise is 4000-4050.77-4100-4170; if there is great good news, it can go as high as 4381.86 in extreme cases.
4. Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin reached the key support level of 115860.5 on July 15, which prompted the rebound. Ethereum is still 32 dollars away from 2900.16.
【Newbie Learning Points Community Bitcoin Market Analysis 2025-07-18 19:40】
（1）The 3-5 wave has clearly ended, with no disagreements.
（2）On the early morning of July 16, the rebound began at the given support level of 115860.5 (already reached), defined as the 4-B wave rebound.
The rebound target is at 119477.46 (already reached) - 120360.23 (already reached) - 120474.6 (already reached).
The height of the 4-B wave rebound is not small, and the low point of the 4-c wave is unlikely to be lower than the low point of the 4-a wave (strong b, weak c wave).
（3）Currently entering the 4-C wave decline.
The target for the 4-C wave decline is at the lower Bollinger band of the 4-hour (or 6-hour) chart or near the daily MA 10.
115860.5 was the bottom of the correction a few days ago, and we have already bought a part.
If it can again reach the lower Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart, the aggressive players can complete the remaining positions near 116375.
The time nodes are July 18 - July 20 - July 22.
The correction is supported by the green Gann angle line.
（4）After the decline, there is a high probability of a fifth upward wave (5th wave rise). The target for the fifth upward segment is above the upper boundary of the Fibonacci fan 0 axis, ideally at 125460-128138-131081. However, if there is extremely favorable news, theoretically, it can further reach 136703-140175. The time node is around July 22 to August 1, closer to August 1.
（5）Only if it breaks down below 112000 will the probability of the fifth upward segment decrease. A breakdown below 108789.99 will completely negate the possibility of a fifth upward segment.
5. XRP reminded to reach a historical new high of 3.69, ultimately achieving it perfectly! 4 dollars is not a dream!
XRP was reminded on July 17 that there is a possibility of reaching a historical new high of 3.69.
In fact, 3.69 is not the highest point yet; there are higher targets, and 4 dollars is not a problem.
【Newbie Learning Points Community XRP Market Analysis 2025-07-17 15:00】
（1）The black line is an adjustment to the blue line (bear market).
（2）On June 22, 1.9083 is a new driving wave of 5 (bull market), which has reached a historical new high (already achieved), and after the rebound, it enters a true bear market.
（3）3rd wave rebounded to 3.69 (already achieved).
（4）The expected correction of the 4th wave is to 3.293-3.086 (focus) -2.9085 (focus); other compliant coins depend on XRP's performance, you can refer to XRP's correction situation to synchronously buy the dip of other compliant coins.
（5）The 5th wave rebounds to 4-4.1129-4.29-4.4138-4.5915; which specific level needs to be confirmed by the low point of the 4th wave.
6. SOL 200 is not a dream!
【SOL Market Analysis and Strategy Update 2025-07-18 19:23】
（1）The drop from 295.83 to 95.26 is considered a large W wave.
（2）The rebound after 95.26 is considered a large X wave, the green line and the blue line are at the same level, and the internal structure is driven by 5 waves.
（3）The big X wave green line is currently in the correction of the 4th wave, ideally targeting 164.76-168.71-169.46.
（4）The target for the 5th wave rebound of the big X wave is 199.96-209.28-218.45.
7. The secret map of altcoins after reaching 100 market cap
The secret map of altcoins after the 100 market cap, the truth about altcoins in the crypto world is in the secret map!
The first altcoin season in the bear market actually started in April; it is currently just a continuation of the altcoin season from April. Understanding a bit of wave theory can help you know that from April to May is the A wave rise, from May to June is the B wave decline, and from June to August is the C wave rise. The current altcoin season is the latter half of the April altcoin season!
8. Last year's 10x coin is now up over 30%.
【Last year's 10x coin is hot today】 Today's reminder: 【If you don’t know what to buy during the altcoin season and are afraid of being trapped, you can buy this coin, which is currently close to historical lows, basically impossible to trap! The upside potential is greater than the downside risk. We made 10 times on this coin last year!】, By evening, this coin has already surged 30%! We bought before it took off! There’s still plenty of room.
9. Is the altcoin season you speak of here?
Ethereum's 3-5 wave broke through 3600, surging for several days; there is still a 4th wave correction for Ethereum, but the correction is not deep; it may even just be sideways. Everyone can take this movement into account.
#山寨币突破 Altcoins are just a huge rebound in a bear market; this is an altcoin season with more than 50% gains before the small bull market in September-October #山寨季何时到来？ (not the 3x small bull market in my mind). How did you buy the dip in September-October last year? The coins that rose a lot then should be bought now, that’s the idea.
This altcoin season actually started in April; it is currently just a continuation of the altcoin season from April. Understanding a bit of wave theory can help you know that from April to May is the A wave rise, from May to June is the B wave decline, and from June to August is the C wave rise. The current altcoin season is the latter half of the April altcoin season!
10. On the eve of the 5th wave rise of Ethereum, which altcoins have the highest cost-performance ratio to catch the last train? Altcoin buying strategy!
Ethereum's 3-5 wave is too strong, reaching 3673. It has been anticipated that the 5th wave would reach 3600, and now the 3-5 wave has already reached, with the rebound severely exceeding expectations!
In the article from the day before yesterday (Ethereum's 3-5 wave surged yesterday, but the 5th wave still hasn't come! The 5th wave will be higher!), it was mentioned: Coins in the top 100 by market cap will exceed their highs from May this year before August.
Some compliant coins, such as XRP and XLM, may even exceed last year's highs.
Compliant coins: XRP, ADA, HBAR, ALGO, IOTA
The order of altcoin rallies is: Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Compliant coins -> Hot leading meme coins -> Leading on-chain coins.
No need to be restless; unappreciated compliant coins and hot leading meme coins, as well as leading on-chain coins, can wait for a correction to be allocated together, catching the last train!
The coins above have the opportunity to exceed the high points of May! This is what everyone calls the altcoin season (your perspective differs from mine; it’s a temporary 50% gain small altcoin season, but not the 3x small bull market in my mind).
11. Altcoin allocation priority
For those with large capital, priority: Buy more compliant coins on corrections > Allocate some meme coins and Ethereum ecosystem > Finally allocate on-chain coins.
For those with small capital, priority: Configure on-chain coins > Configure meme coins > Configure Ethereum ecosystem > Configure compliant coins.
On-chain coins, fartcoin, first reached the high point of May! Virtual follows closely! More on-chain coins, meme coins, and unappreciated Ethereum ecosystem coins have been released!
Fartcoin target 1.6965-1.9623, can go as high as 2.2543 in extreme cases!
Virtual is still several points away from 2.589! If fartcoin has already surged, how far can virtual be? You can buy the dip. Target 2.589-3, can go as high as 3.4322 in extreme cases! Just buy more on the dip!
12. When will altcoins peak?
Real altcoin rallies all happen after Ethereum's rally. It’s still early. Recently, what has been released are coins at the bottom, with the potential for a rebound greater than the risk of a decline.
In the financial market, including the big A and the crypto world, those who really make money are not the stockholders who hold positions all the time, but those who rely on a turnaround.
Now is an opportunity for a turnaround. You don’t need to hold positions every day; holding for a week or two is enough; a wave can achieve it!
【When will altcoins peak?】 This wave of rise is similar to the rise at the end of last year. Last December, Ethereum peaked around December 17, and altcoins peaked between December 6-8 or December 17, meaning altcoins peaked at the top of Ethereum's 5-3 wave or 5-5 wave!
Ethereum is currently in the 3-5 wave; this wave is too strong! Since Ethereum's 5th wave has not yet arrived, altcoins still have the potential to continue rising! We will only consider escaping the top of altcoins when Ethereum reaches the 5-3 wave or the 5-5 wave.
💡 Note: Investing is like walking at night; always carry the lantern of 'risk awareness' to avoid trading fog and refuse to blindly chase the light.
If you have ever floated in the sea of desire, like and follow 'Newbie Learning Points', leave a glimmer in the comments, and share to let more people see—life is worth it; there’s no need to gamble with life.