7.18 Afternoon Cryptocurrency Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Market Review
In the early hours, Bitcoin strongly broke through the 120,000 mark to around 1209, with Ethereum following suit. After the price surged, it fell back as expected, and we accurately captured the pullback opportunity to set up short positions, successfully gaining over 1000 points in profit. The current price has rebounded to around 1208 and is under pressure. The technical pattern indicates that the downward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to continue focusing on short positions.
Technical Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
- The hourly Bollinger Bands show a significantly downward divergence structure, with all three lines declining sharply, and the bandwidth expanding noticeably.
- Bearish momentum dominates the market, with prices running along the lower band, and the RSI (4H) is under pressure below the 45 midpoint.
- Key resistance: 121,200 (previous high converted pressure)
- Downward target: 118,800 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
2. Ethereum (ETH/USDT)
- Following BTC, a top divergence pullback occurred, with the MACD double line showing a death cross below the zero axis.
- A triple top structure formed around 3670, and the hourly EMA5/10 is in a bearish arrangement.
- Support reference at the psychological level of 3600.
Afternoon Trading Plan
| Variety | Entry Point | Stop Loss | Target Point | Risk-Reward Ratio |
|--------|----------|----------|----------|--------|
| BTC | 119,900 | 120,600 | 118,800 | 1:3.6 |
| ETH | 3,670 | 3,720 | 3,600 | 1:2.8 |
Risk Control Tips
- It is recommended to control the position within 5% to avoid volatility risks during the evening US trading session.
- If BTC effectively breaks through 121,500 (4-hour closing price), then stop loss and wait for market observation.
- Pay attention to the potential market sentiment changes that may be triggered by the European Central Bank officials' speech at 18:00.
Operational Logic
The current market presents a "strong trend - weak rebound" characteristic, and the short strategy aligns with:
① The technical repair demand after volume-price divergence.
② The shorting space after the derivatives market funding rates return to neutral.
③ The weekly level is still under pressure in the upper channel of the downward trend.
