【GENIUS Act Implementation, Can Circle Secure the 'Digital Dollar Foundation'?】
On Thursday in the Eastern US, the House of Representatives officially passed the GENIUS Act, adding to the Senate's vote in June, marking a compliance 'coming of age' for USDC issuer Circle (CRCL). In just six weeks, the stock price surged from $31 at IPO peak to $298, then fluctuated between $176 and $227, and this week it rebounded again with the boost from 'Crypto Week'.
The policy dividend is clear: the new law requires 1:1 reserves and segregated custody, regulated by the CFTC, opening up compliance channels for USDC in cross-border payments, merchant settlements, and other scenarios. Meanwhile, Circle recently partnered with Fiserv to launch FIUSD, accelerating the integration of traditional payments. However, valuation pressures are emerging. CRCL has increased more than sevenfold since its IPO, and voices calling to 'sell the news' have appeared in the Reddit and X communities, indicating that capital games will be more intense after the favorable news lands.
Options data shows that the 30-day implied volatility is as high as 100%, but the IV Rank is only 11%, indicating that while volatility is high, the relative position is low; the Put/Call ratio is 0.52, indicating a bias towards bullishness, but the near-month Max Pain is at $205, suggesting that the main players prefer to converge fluctuations, and short-term upward space may be limited.
