On the early morning of 18th, $ETH 7.18, actually, prices above 3400 are only suitable for short-term experts to speculate. For ordinary beginners, it is wise to wait for a pullback to the weekly support level of 3050–3150.

Avoid FOMO emotions, after all, this wave of increases has already exhausted some ETF expectations.

In fact, Ethereum has been strongly squeezing at the position of 3200, but the risk of overbought is accumulating.

1. What position can it rise to? Target position prediction has 3 major bases:

1. Technical target, currently in the main upward wave 3, starting point of wave 1 is 2800 → Target of wave 3 = 1.618 of wave 1 ≈ 3550. The upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel is at 3650, expected to be touched in early August.

2. The concentrated area of whale holding cost at 3200-3300 has been broken, the next target is 3500 where profit-taking pressure exists. The amount of withdrawal from exchanges has surged, net outflow of 420,000 ETH in 7 days, supply shortage pushing prices up.

3. Event-driven target, BlackRock ETF approval 3800-4000, to be announced in early August, Federal Reserve interest rate cut probability of 15%-20% in September is 85%, Pectra upgrade landing 4200+ activating new demand for account abstraction.

Ultimate target range:

Conservative 3550 technical resistance, neutral 3800 ETF catalysis, aggressive 4200 interest rate cut + upgrade dual drive.

2. At what position will there be a pullback? Signals and positions triggering pullbacks:

Technical daily RSI (6) > 90 target 3250-3300 probability 70%.

Focus on on-chain whale outflows > 50,000 ETH to exchanges target 3100-3200 probability 60%.

Macroeconomic negative factors, such as US core CPI, Federal Reserve direction target 3k—3.1k.

Key pullback nodes:

1. 3480-3500 short-term profit-taking area, 24h highest 3480.

2. 3550, technical channel upper boundary + maximum pain point resistance for options.

3. BlackRock ETF announcement day, after the good news is realized, likely to retrace to 3.3k.

Pullback depth prediction -8%-12%, 3500 → 3080-3220.

For spot trading, this level is not recommended for entry, wait for the pullback before considering building positions gradually. Last time when it rebounded to 2.8k and pulled back to 2.1k, we advised everyone to enter spot.

For contract players:

Long position: Reduce 50% at current price, move stop loss up to 3380 for remaining position.

Short position: Best entry point, patient friends can place a short limit order at 3480, stop loss at 3510, target 3420—3350.

Second entry point, 3510, stop loss at 3555, target 3410—3361.

Aggressive entry point, market price 3455—3460, stop loss at 3495, target 3361.

Remember, no matter which entry point you choose, please be sure to set a stop loss. At 3510 and 3480, consider entering 30% of your position.

Updating with a travel photo 🫣