$ETH Right now, everyone is most concerned about how high Ethereum can rise, or if there is an opportunity to exit short positions that are underwater, and how to handle spot trading!

Above 3.4k is actually only suitable for short-term experts to gamble, and for ordinary investors, waiting for a pullback to the 3050–3150 weekly support level is the wise move. Avoid FOMO emotions, after all, this wave of Ethereum's rise has already overdrawn some ETF expectations.

1. How high can it rise? Three main bases for target prediction:

1. Technical target: currently in the third wave main rise, starting point of the first wave 2800 → Target of the third wave = 1st wave 1.618 ≈ 3550. The upper boundary of the weekly rising channel is at 3650, which was touched in early August.

2. The concentrated zone of whale holding costs at 3200-3300 has been broken, the next target is 3500 profit-taking pressure area. The amount of withdrawals from exchanges surged, with a net outflow of 420,000 ETH in 7 days, leading to a supply shortage that propels the rise.

3. Event-driven targets: BlackRock ETF approval 3800-4000, to be announced in early August, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September + 15%-20% probability for futures at 85%, Pectra upgrade reaching 4200+ activates new demand for account abstraction.

Ultimate target range:

Conservative 3550 technical resistance, neutral 3800 ETF catalyst, aggressive 4200 rate cut + upgrade dual drive.

2. At what position will there be a pullback? Trigger signals and positions for pullback:

From the technical perspective, daily RSI (6) > 90 targets 3250-3300 with a probability of 70%.

Pay attention to on-chain whales transferring out > 50,000 ETH to exchanges with a target of 3100-3200 at a probability of 60%.

Macroeconomic headwinds, such as the US core CPI, the Federal Reserve's direction targets 3k—3.1k.

Key pullback nodes:

1. 3480-3500 short-term profit-taking area, 24h high of 3480.

2. 3550, technical channel upper boundary + maximum pain resistance for options.

3. BlackRock ETF announcement day, after good news is priced in, there is a high probability of a retracement to 3.3k.

Pullback depth prediction is 8%-12%, from 3500 to 3,080-3220.

As for spot trading, this price point is not recommended for entry; below 2.5k, consider building positions in batches. Last time there was a rebound to 2.8k and a pullback to 2.1k which allowed everyone to enter spot trading once.

For contract players:

Long positions: reduce positions by 50% at the current price, move the stop loss of remaining positions to 3380.

Short positions: limited to shorting at 3480, stop loss at 3510, target at 3320.

This wave of rise is currently not suitable for chasing long positions; it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low, shorting at high levels. I already took a position at 2380 in the early morning, but be sure to set proper take profit and stop loss levels, as being trapped in a one-sided market is common, avoid being left hanging! Whether it goes above 3.5k or not, a second one-sided market is coming. Layout is already in place ⬆️