In previous macro cycles, when the STH NUPL indicator was at 25%, it coincided with a peak in the speculative enthusiasm of short-term holders: they began to take profits on a large scale, thereby suppressing or reversing the bullish momentum.
As of July 17, 2025, the STH NUPL is at 13% (while the last ATH level was 16%), indicating that this group’s unrealized profits are moderate and there are no signs of market overheating.
To increase the share of unrealized profits to 25%, the current BTC price must break the $137,000 barrier. This level would trigger large-scale selling, followed by a subsequent pullback. $BTC
