Family, in this ever-changing world of cryptocurrency, legends of wealth and ruin unfold every day. Especially Bitcoin, it is simply the 'stabilizing force' of the entire crypto market. Recently, the market has truly made many people both love and hate it.
This year, Bitcoin has been flat between $26,000 and $29,000 for a whole five months, which is the longest flat period in history, comparable to the A-shares that hover around 3000 points, with such little volatility that it makes people sleepy.
At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin even dropped below $25,000, welcoming this September, which usually sees more drops than gains. But just tonight, it shot up like a rocket to over $27,000; this 'market situation' is truly perplexing.
Actually, this is mainly because the market liquidity is too poor, and it is in a stage of stock game. This market is very similar to the previous two bear markets; just opening the trading software feels like a waste of time, it would be better to work hard.
Now everyone is sure that the market is in a bear market, but the question arises, will a bull market really come in 2024? You should know that everyone generally believes that the Bitcoin halving in 2024 will spur a bull market, but will this bull market come earlier or later? Some old players feel that next year the world will be shrouded in the shadow of an economic crisis, and the bull market may not come.
But I firmly believe that a bull market will definitely come! Why do I say this? The cyclicality of Bitcoin is very strong. Everyone take a look at this 'carving a boat to seek a sword' picture; historically, the three halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all triggered huge bull markets. Bitcoin has experienced countless bearish and bullish news, yet the price has consistently risen in a spiral manner, which is a standard trend market. The whole industry is continuously developing, which naturally reflects in the price rising spirally.
What we need to focus on now is Bitcoin's market capitalization within the crypto market. Back in the day, when the bull market just started in 2017, which was the freezing point of the bear market, Bitcoin was dominant, with a market capitalization share of about 90%, truly a 'king'.
That year, Ethereum rose due to the innovative concept of smart contracts, becoming the 'little king' of the crypto market. After the black swan event in March 2021, Bitcoin's market capitalization share was at 64.83%, and in the following months, it even reached a high of 73.61%. Now, with Ethereum as the 'little king' and the continuous development of the crypto market, Bitcoin's market capitalization share will not be much higher than before.
Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization accounts for 47.88%, and Ethereum's market capitalization accounts for 18.27%, totaling over 65%. I can clearly tell everyone that when the next round of Bitcoin halving occurs and the market capitalization starts to decline rapidly, the bull market will really come!
What does a bull market look like? It's a market where even 'garbage coins' can take off, as long as the coin is still alive (not delisted by exchanges, preferably the project team is still working hard), it can at least multiply several times. Here, I will share with you an indicator to assess the high and low prices of Bitcoin - the ahr999 index.
When the indicator value < 0.45, it is the bottom-buying range; at 0.45 - 1.2, it is the regular investment range; 1.2 - 5 is the waiting-for-takeoff range; and when > 5, it may not be a good time for regular investment. The formula is: ahr999 index = (Bitcoin price / 200-day regular investment cost) × (Bitcoin price / index growth valuation).
In fact, the bull market is really very close; it just needs a little more time. I boldly speculate that BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF will be approved during next year's bull market, which will trigger a major bull market.
Some friends may not know what BlackRock is, so let me explain: BlackRock is one of the largest asset management groups in the world, headquartered in New York, managing a total of $8.59 trillion, which is quite a lot of money! Its movements can significantly represent future capital trends.
Therefore, it is still very appropriate to enter this market now. But I want to emphasize again, remember not to go all in at once! If you really go all in, there are only two paths: if you win, you can enjoy life at a club; if you lose, you can only go 'work hard'. We ordinary people cannot withstand the pressure of a violent drop.
Family, the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities and challenges. As a senior crypto analyst, I will always be here to deeply analyze market dynamics and share the most valuable insights.
If you also want to share a piece of the pie in this market, hurry up and follow me! I will help everyone seize the opportunity in the bull market and achieve wealth appreciation. Let’s forge our own path in the world of cryptocurrency!
