In the crypto space, the survival rate of newcomers is lower than that of wild grass in a bear market—out of 100 people who rush in, 90 will lose all their capital within 3 months, and among the remaining 10, 8 will struggle to break even, leaving only 2 who can reach profitability. I've been in this for 8 years, and the pitfalls I've encountered could fill three wallets. Today, I want to share some real advice: to survive in this market, first understand these 10 rules, which is more reliable than chasing 100 '100x coins.'

1. Choosing the right track is 100 times more important than blind effort.

Newcomers always think 'studying candlestick patterns will make money,' but the truth in the crypto world is: where the trend is, money follows. Last year, MEME coins averaged a 3200% increase, while DeFi projects only saw 180%—it's not that technology isn't important, but at this stage, 'what everyone believes in' is more likely to drive up prices than 'how good it really is.'


My approach is: spend 10 hours each week analyzing industry reports, pulling leading coins in new concepts like DePIN and AI into my observation pool, and only focus on the 'potential stocks' within the top 50 by market cap. Those obscure coins ranked thousands that shout 'disrupt Ethereum' daily should be avoided unless you have money to burn.


Remember: when standing in the right spot, even pigs can fly; but once the trend passes, the first to fall will also be the pigs.

2. Understand the cycles, and you will have beaten 80% of retail investors.

Opportunities in the crypto world are never lacking; what's lacking is 'doing the right thing at the right time.' When the bull market comes, dare to increase your position in mainstream coins to 70%, and limit altcoins to 30% (take profits when you can); as soon as the bear market hits, convert 80% of your holdings into stablecoins and lay low, with the remaining 20% dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and Ethereum—I've used this strategy for 3 cycles without a single loss.


Last year, a fan ignored my advice and heavily invested in altcoins during the bear market, resulting in a 90% loss and coming to me in tears. In contrast, those who consistently dollar-cost averaged into ETH each month have seen their returns double in this year's bull market.
Stop always thinking about 'precise bottom fishing.' The power of cycles is 100 times more reliable than your 'market sense.'

3. Five pitfalls that newcomers must avoid to survive longer.

  1. Full investment in one coin = suicide.
    I've seen too many people dump their down payments for a house into one coin, shouting 'villa by the sea' when it rises, and lining up on the rooftop when it falls. My iron rule is: never exceed a 20% position in a single coin, and always keep 30% in stablecoins as 'emergency funds.' Last year, when a certain AI coin plummeted, I used the pyramid method for averaging down (buying 20% more after a 10% drop), not only avoiding losses but also making a 40% profit.

  2. Chasing highs and cutting losses is the 'factory setting' for retail investors.
    Feeling envious when you see a coin rise 50% in 24 hours? There's a 90% chance you bought at the peak. My method is: open the 4-hour candlestick chart, and if the RSI indicator exceeds 70, I absolutely won't touch it (overbought signal), and if it's below 30, don't rush to sell (oversold signal). Machines are more reliable than your emotions.

  3. "Insider information" is just bait for cutting losses.
    Those shouting about 'insider buying' groups are essentially the 'pump and dump' schemes of whales. Last year, in a certain project group, the group leader shared a screenshot of 'making a million', only for the whale to dump 20,000 ETH within 2 hours, leaving retail investors stuck. Want to verify information? Check on-chain data; if a whale has been accumulating for 3 consecutive days, then it's worth a closer look.

  4. Losing coins is worse than losing money.
    A fan clicked on a 'claim airdrop' link, and their wallet's private key was stolen, resulting in the loss of 8 BTC overnight. Remember: large assets must be stored in hardware wallets, with private keys written on paper and hidden in three different places. Only choose exchanges with proper licenses; uninstall any platform where the cold wallet ratio is less than 95%.

  5. Don't get stuck in daily fluctuations.
    Bitcoin's average daily volatility is 3.2%, but it rose 220% over the past year. Those who day trade end up losing half their profits just on transaction fees, and in the end, their returns aren't as good as those who simply dollar-cost average. My suggestion: set a date each month to invest, and sell in one go at the end of the bull market for easy profits.

4. From survival to profitability, these 3 strategies will help you advance.

  1. Mainstream coins are the ballast.
    My allocation is always: 60% Bitcoin (for stability), 30% Ethereum (for ecosystem benefits), and 10% platform coins (to benefit from exchanges). Taking profits is simple: when Bitcoin doubles its historical high, sell 10% for every additional 10% increase, ensuring you don't get greedy at the top while still capturing the market.

  2. Mining altcoins requires a 'filter.'
    It's not that you can't play with altcoins, but you need to consider these three points: market cap ranked 50-200 (for liquidity), the team updates code weekly (check GitHub), and there are real-world applications (don't believe in vague 'metaverse concepts'). Limit single coin positions to 5%, and cut losses immediately if it drops 30% or falls out of the top 150.

  3. Arbitrage is the secret to easy money.
    Cross-platform arbitrage (for example, when the USDT price difference between Binance and OKX exceeds 1%), and futures-spot arbitrage (when futures are overpriced by more than 5%) are all zero-risk opportunities. I recommend two tools: Delta Neutral for automatic price difference monitoring, and Arbitrum Bot for cross-chain arbitrage, allowing you to make money with just a tap on your phone.

Lastly, let me say something heartfelt:

The core of making money in the crypto world isn't how well you can predict but how well you can 'control'—control your position, control your emotions, control your desires.
Newcomers shouldn't think about 'getting rich overnight.' First, aim for 'not losing,' then learn to 'earn a little,' and only then can you 'earn big.'#GENIUS稳定币法案 #山寨币突破