Bitcoin 7.16 Contract Strategy: Pullback or Trap?
Last night's CPI data was slightly bearish, but more importantly—Bitcoin ETF has seen its first net outflow in a month. What does this mean? Now the rise and fall of Bitcoin is mainly driven by institutions, ETF inflows = bullish, sustained outflows = potential bearish shift.
Macroeconomic Focus:
In addition to the ETF, keep an eye on Trump's tariff policy, as his stance may directly influence market sentiment.
Key Support & Trading Strategy (4-hour chart)
Bulls:
First support 115,000 → Light position to try going long
Second support 111,800 → Normal position to go long (if a rebound occurs)
Bears:
118,700 & 120,000 → Can open short positions in batches
Why this view?
Liquidity Distribution: Buying pressure is accumulating below, while selling pressure is decreasing above, with liquidity starting to concentrate around 130,000.
Technical Patterns:
The third wave of the rise may be complete.
If it drops again after a rebound, it may form an M-top or head-and-shoulders top (a bearish signal).
Market Sentiment (Bull-Bear Ratio):
Although the bull-bear ratio is still <1 (bears dominate), the number of people going long is increasing.
Historical Trends: When retail investors start to follow the trend and go long, it often leads to a reversal and decline.
(Last month when the bull-bear ratio was 0.4, I went against the trend and shorted, ultimately getting wrecked, a profound lesson.)
Personal Bias: Bearish, but need to observe.
Short-term may see a slight rise, but afterwards likely to continue falling.
The longer the consolidation, the greater the probability of a decline.
Key Logic: The market always sees a few people making money; when the majority are bullish, it is a warning sign for a reversal.
Strategy: Patiently wait for key levels, don’t blindly chase trades!
