@Lagrange Official #lagrange
⚡️“LA 0.34→0.42 Value Reversion Window? Low Volume Gap + Capital Outflow, Short-term Ambush or Continue to Lie Flat?”
One-sentence Summary: LA has fallen to its lowest level of the year, with prices below 70% transaction area and deviating from MA200 by more than 10%. There exists a short-term demand for value reversion towards POC 0.4235; however, the contract holdings have decreased by 39M in 7 days, and spot continues to flow out. If it breaks below LVN 0.3327, it will open up new lows. For the cautious, buy in batches on pullbacks to 0.337-0.341 HVN, stop loss at 0.329, target at 0.42, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.2; if it breaks below 0.329, short to pursue a decline, target 0.308.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 0.4235 (104M transaction, UpVol 66%), with upper HVN 0.458 forming secondary resistance.
• Buffer Zone: 0.337-0.341 (double HVN, transactions 99M+79M), has repeatedly stopped falling and is viewed as the first support.
• Gap: LVN 0.3327-0.3284 (only 22M transactions), losing this will quickly slide to 0.308.
• 70% Value Area: 0.337-0.571, current price is at the lower edge, short-term not overbought.
Momentum Verification
• UpVol 66% near POC, but net outflow of contracts in the past 24h is -2.8M, long-short ratio changed from 1.49 to 1.68, with long positions being reduced.
• Bollinger Bands 1h lower band 0.334, middle band 0.341; price is operating near the lower band, RSI 56, neutral slightly bullish.
Cycle Judgment
Late-stage bear market consolidation seeking bottom: long-term holdings continue to shrink (7d -39M), funding rate is still positive but very low, and the main force has not yet replenished.
Trading Strategy
1. Short-term Bullish
Entry: 0.337-0.341 (pullback to HVN + Bollinger lower band)
Stop Loss: 0.329 (outside of LVN -0.5×ATR≈0.008)
Target: 0.423 (POC)/ 0.458 (upper HVN)
Risk-Reward Ratio: (0.423-0.340)/(0.340-0.329)=3.2
2. Short on Breakdown
Trigger: 1h closing price <0.329 and DownVol >60%
Entry: 0.326-0.329
Stop Loss: 0.334 (upper HVN)
Target: 0.308 (year's low)
Risk-Reward Ratio ≈ 2.6
Risk Warning
• Continued reduction in contracts or macro risks will suppress rebound height.
• Strategy Failure: If it recovers to 0.329 and then breaks below again or shows a large volume long bearish candle.
• Single Trade Risk ≤1%, avoid high leverage; trading time should avoid 30 minutes before and after settlement.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
This article is sponsored by @Ad Space!
